Tour de France Stage 11: Albertville to La Rosiere

Tuesday, July 17, 2018 5:23 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 17, 2018 5:23 PM UTC

The stage route is almost identical to a stage ridden in this year’s Dauphiné, but they started in Frontenex instead of Albertville. The rest of the stage is identical, so let's check it out.

<p>If Tuesday's Stage 11 route has a familiar look, it should. It is basically the same to a leg in this year’s Dauphiné, but riders will start in Albertville rather than Frontenex. The Bisanne, Col du Pré and Cormet de Roselend all are on the menu before the finish up to La Rosiere. Pelle Bilbao won that stage after attacking away from the break of the day, but it was Thomas’ ride behind that caught the eye, dropping Martin, Bardet and Yates in the closing kilometres with a searing attack.</p><p>Stage 10 saw 2nd favorite Julian Alaphilippe pull off an amazing ride to win solo as the GC teams rode fast, but en masse to the finish. They were just feeling each other out, there’s sure to be fireworks over the coming stages.</p><p> </p><h2>The Route</h2><p>Up and down all day, climbing from once they pass the intermediate sprint after 11.5kms with the HC Montée de Bisanne (12,4kms at 8.2%) first up. 17kms of a descent, and back up the Col du Pré, a HC climb of 12.6kms at 7.7%. A brief descent and a little bit of flat and they start climbing again after 64kms with the Cat 2 Cormet de Roselend (5.7kms at 6.5%).</p><p>18.5kms of a descent later and they hit Bourg Saint Maurice Les Arcs and get set for the final ascent to La Rosière, a Cat 1 climb of 17.6kms at 5.8%. The steepest parts are around the middle of the climb where it hits around 9% averages, but the last 4.5kms or so are a lot easier, closer to 5% average.</p><p><img alt src="https://images-production-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5b4e2b6daa35fe00adec3da1/original-tour-state" style="width:871px;height:441px" /></p><h2> </h2><h2>Analysis and Picks</h2><p>Two HCs inside the first 57kms is sure to get the KOM guys' pulses racing. That's a lot of points on offer before you could eventually take your foot off the gas and have an easy last 50kms to save energy.</p><p>In this stage in this year’s Dauphiné everyone was on the rollers before the start and the attacks came thick and fast inside the opening 20kms. First a group of 7 got away, led by Warren Barguil, but by kilometre 20 there were some 27 riders in the lead group, including Thomas de Gendt, Jesus Herrada, Rudy Mollard, Pavel Kochetcov, Romain Hardy, Amael Moinard, Thomas Degand and Serge Pauwels. All of these riders are lining up for this stage too.</p><p>Now having had a sighter that day and a good training run on it, I'd expect something similar Tuesday. A big break go inside 20kms, they gradually get whittled down, but at the same time pull out a lead of some 6-8 minutes and someone goes solo on the final climb.</p><p>Out of that lot above, I<a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/" title="Sports Betting Odds">'d have to pick Barguil, De Gendt and Herrada</a>. They'd probably be the strongest and smartest guys on a day like this and most likely to want to go after KOM points, but De Gendt tried and failed to get away in Stage 10 and then was seen struggling out the back pretty early on in the stage, and came home over 21 minutes down.</p><p>Pauwels, Degand and Mollard were also on the attack Monday, and <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4702&amp;book=Bet365" rel="nofollow" title="Live Cycling Odds At Bet365 ">I can’t see them going up the road again Tuesday</a>. Barguil said before Stage 10 that he was going to deliberately lose time so he can go on the attack in the days to come. Well, he was true to his word and after a phony attack he was caught and then dropped, and he lost 7½ minutes by the finish. Watch out for him Tuesday.</p><p>Pierre Rolland knows these roads well too, as he has trained and raced around here a lot. It could be a day for Rolland to try to match his French compatriot Alaphilippe and try to get in the break. With Uran struggling he might be let go race his own race, and with a strong group, Rolland could attack on the final hill and try to solo to victory.</p><p>Now how else could it play out? Well we could see the break go, but the likes of Movistar or AG2R (what's left of them) might try to blow the race up early on the Bisanne or the Col du Pré in an attempt to isolate Froome and Thomas.</p><p>Bahrain, UAE and Mitchelton-Scott might be willing to pitch in, as they all have an interest in taking Froome out of the game. If that's the case the break's gap could tumble pretty quickly and they could well be caught on the final climb to La Rosiere. They probably would have caught Bilbao with a TDF strength pack chasing.</p><p>So then it come to who can turn on the gas on the final climb and get away to win solo, or will it come down to a small group of favorites sprinting for the win? Dan Martin and Adam Yates are two who could sprint away, maybe Alejandro Valverde if it's a favorites sprint to the top, but he looked under pressure Monday. We saw how lively Martin is and that 5% uphill sprint is perfect for him.</p><p>Geraint Thomas blew them all away though on this finish in the Dauphiné, attacking away hard in the closing kilometres. Bardet tried to go with him but soon gave up the ghost, Thomas pushed on and almost caught Bilbao. Can he do it again? Both he and Froome looked very strong Monday; I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them try something.</p><p>When do Movistar make their move? Landa is still convalescing, and crashed in the neutral zone again, but he still finished with the leaders. Can Quintana attack on the Roselend or Rosiere? It’s possible, he has to start challenging Froome early I think, and he should be fresh enough.</p><p>Nibali is hiding away, and I think he’s waiting until next week to attack. Bardet might try something but he’s going to be pretty isolated with only Latour really there to look after him. Roglic looked OK coming home Monday in the top 10. He might try something, with Kruijswijk in support, but Fuglsang said that it really stung in the finale Monday. He might find it tough going again Tuesday.</p><p>A hard stage to call again, but I think we are about 50/50 that the break makes it or that it’s a GC winner, and <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/" title="Free Sports Picks">I’m going to lean toward Dan Martin to take the stage</a>, with a few small bets on break candidates in case they do make it.</p><p> </p><h2>Selections</h2><p>1p win on Dan Martin</p><p>0.3pts each-way on Warren Barguil</p><p>0.3pts each-way on Jesus Herrada</p><p>0.3pts each-way on Pierre Rolland</p>
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