Tour de France Stage 10: Arras Citadelle to Roubaix

Monday, July 16, 2018 1:01 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 16, 2018 1:01 PM UTC

After a rest day, riders are heading into the Alps on Tuesday to begin three more crucial stages, with everything still wide open in this year's Tour de France.

<p>A brilliant stage on Sunday and a brilliant winner for us at +$2500 with John Degenkolb landing the spoils in fine style. It was a dramatic day in which Richie Porte, the race’s second favorite, crashed out with just 10 kilometres of the stage gone. And there were crashes all day – Froome crashed, Bardet crashed, Majka crashed, Uran crashed ... but most of them managed to get through the stage with the main peloton without losing too much time, so the race is still very open and ready for someone to seize control.</p><p> </p><h2>The Route</h2><p>They enter the mountains with a tough stage over 156kms that takes in three Cat 1 climbs and a HC climb – a day which will really test who has come out of the first week in good or bad shape. The climbing is relentless all day and ends with the double Cat 1 ascension of the Col de Romme and Col de La Colombiere inside the last 37kms. The finish is not at the summit, though, of the Colombiere; they descend for 11kms and after a little run on the flat there’s a slightly uphill finish to the stage, around 3.1% for the last kilometre.</p><p><img alt src="https://images-production-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5b4c9836aa35fe00adec3d95/original-tour-route" style="width:776px;height:439px" /></p><p> </p><h2>Analysis and Picks</h2><p>After the drama of the cobbles, the race is still most certainly on for the GC. There are still loads of riders in contention, with <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/" title="Sports Betting Odds">Geraint Thomas in pole position to take the yellow jersey in Stage 10</a> with the first tough climbing stage in the Alps.</p><p>There will be a lot of tired bodies out there, even after a rest day, and we might see the first breakaway winner of the race. The GC teams took quite a battering on Sunday, and there are three hard stages to come. It might be that they decide to take one more rest day and let a non-dangerous break take it.</p><p>So then <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/" title="Free Sports Picks">it comes to trying to pick the winner from about 50 potential candidates</a>. They will need to have lots of watts to get away early on as the battle to get in the break will be pretty hot. They’ll need to be able to climb well with all those mountains to get over, and they’ll need to be able to descend and maybe sprint for the finish.</p><p>Also, this is a day when some riders will kick-start their KOM charges, so putting all what I said above about what is needed to win, and someone who will be looking to take an early lead in the KOM competition, it all points to Warren Barguil. This looks a perfect stage for him, with loads of KOM points on offer and the chance to win from a reduced sprint (or attack away from on the Colombiere).</p><p>Another rider who might like this stage is Omar Fraile, who was in the break on Sunday, possibly to try to just test the legs and stay out of trouble in the bunch, as he has bigger plans for the days ahead. He’s a former winner of the KOM competition and he may not be needed to babysit Fuglsang so he might go.</p><p>And Thomas de Gendt is likely to go. He also stayed out of trouble in the break in Stage 9, but this is much more to his liking and he’s been known to go for KOM points in the past.</p><p>Egan Bernal lost a lot of time on the cobbles Sunday, and with it possibly his chances of winning the white jersey, maybe he will switch focus now to stage hunting and the KOM competition? And what about BMC – they are sure to have someone go in the break now that Porte is out.</p><p>Damiano Caruso and Tejay Van Garderen could go in the break, as they are far enough down now to be given some freedom. Caruso was going very well in the Dauphine and finished 7th on the two key mountain stages; he’s worth a shot at 25/1.</p><p>And as for the GC guys? Alejandro Valverde is the +$400 favourite, and although he seems in good form and would be favorite for a GC group sprint, it’s too short for me. Same with Julian Alaphilippe at +$650; he may not stay with the GC men if they go hard on that 10% last 3kms of the Colombiere.</p><p>Dan Martin rode brilliantly on the cobbles Sunday to stay in contention and with the way he attacked on the Mur de Bretagne you’d have to fancy his chances here of getting away ,.. but will he be able to hold off a chasing pack? I don’t think so.</p><p>If Vincenzo Nibali is the one who can attack away toward the top of the climb, then he could well hang on down the descent given his descending skills. But what’s his condition like? We’ll soon find out, but I’m not taking a risk on it.</p><p>Adam Yates, Chris Froome and Primoz Roglic should all go well too, as could Lilian Calmejane, Pierre Latour, Geraint Thomas and Mikel Landa. The first day in the Alps after a rest day after a hectic opening week could produce some mixed performances, so we’ll just dip our toe in with a few bets to get the second week started.</p><p> </p><h2>Selections</h2><p>0.3pts win on Thomas de Gendt at +$140</p><p>0.3pts win on Damiano Caruso at +$2500</p><p>0.5pts win on Warren Barguil at +$1600</p><p> </p><h2>Matchbets</h2><p>Valverde to beat Martin, and Majka to beat Zakarin – 2pts at +$125 with <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4702&amp;book=Bet365" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bet365</a></p>
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