Sagan is just 4/9 though so there isn’t much value in him, he should win it, but that’s one for the big hitters. Who can challenge him?
Dylan Groenewegen was 8/1 last year but he didn’t have a great time of it in the opening week, only managing a 4th and a 6th, but it clicked into gear for him in the 2nd week and he won two stages in a row. He’s in really good form again this year, with 10 wins to his name.
He will find it extremely tough going in the final week though, maybe even before that with the tough Pyreneean stages. You’re taking a chance with him that he’ll make it all the way to Paris, but he did make it two years ago, and not only that, took the final stage too, but still only finished 7th in the Points Competition.
Elia Viviani – 5/1. Elia Viviani has a lot of making up to do after his disastrous Giro where he didn’t take a single stage win. He does have his A-team lead-out here though, Richeze, Morkov, Lampaert, Devenyns, and Asgreen were all with him at the TDS where they dominated the 4th and 5th stages to help him land two stages in a row.
Their mission in this TDF is to deliver as many stage-wins as possible for Viviani, maybe even the Points Jersey too, but that would probably be second priority. Still, if he can win one or two of the first three sprint stages on stage 1, 4 and 7, then he will be in a good position. Will he finish? Well, like a lot of the sprinters, he’s going to struggle in the Pyrénées and will really struggle in the final week in the Alps.
Michael Matthews – 8/1. Matthews abandoned with illness before the start of stage 5 last year but won this competition in 2017 after Sagan was disqualified. He also finished 3rd in the points competition in the Tour in 2016. Sunweb don’t really have any leader for the GC now and Matthews is hinting he isn’t quite ready, but he should be able to ride himself into it pretty quickly
Caleb Ewan – 16/1. Caleb Ewan has now started three Giros and one Vuelta and not finished any of them. It’s also hard to believe that he’s not ridden the Tour before, that’s a stat that surprised me. He’ll have his eyes on 4 or 5 stages in the opening 11 stages and could well take one or two of them, especially the hillier ones that will strip out or tire the heavier sprinters. But I’m not sure he’ll make it all the way to Paris and even if he does, I can’t see him besting Sagan often enough to come close to him at the top.
Alexander Kristoff will be involved in lots of the sprints, maybe not winning them, but will be top 6 on most of them. He has shown he can make it to Paris, he’s finished all six of the Tour’s he’s started, and has finished 2nd, 4th, 5th, 10th, 2nd and 5th in the points competitions. At 22/1 he is going to be an e/w chance for a place though, unless Sagan drops out it’s hard to see him winning it.
Wout Van Aert is going to be a fascinating one to watch in his first Grand Tour. Will he be cooked halfway through in his first GT? Or will he be a major player in a lot of stages, and like Sagan pick up points all over the place? We saw in the Dauphiné and the Belgian Nationals that he is in fantastic form, winning TTs against time triallists and beating the likes of Bennett and Alaphilippe in sprints.
It’s impossible to look past Sagan, but the 4/9 is really only for the big hitters. But, if we double him with Bernal for the White jersey it becomes a little bit more attractive, the double pays 11/10 with Betway.
Michael Matthews offers each-way value I think at 8/1, he should finish the race, he should be involved in a lot of finishes and breaks and Sunweb doesn’t really have a lot else to ride for.
Back the double of Peter Sagan to win the Points competition and Egan Bernal to win the Youth competition at 11/10 with Betway
Back Michael Matthews each-way for the Points competition at 8/1 with Bet365