Top Value Bets For Thursday's ATP US Open Matches

Joao Mourato

Wednesday, August 31, 2016 6:01 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2016 6:01 PM UTC

Join us on our daily coverage of the ATP US Open. Find out our top tennis picks for Day 4 and why you should place these two valuable tennis bets.

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Jeremy Chardy vs. Grigor Dimitrov (22)

After reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati, Grigor Dimitrov is trying to carry his good form to New York, with the Bulgarian defeating Inigo Cervantes in the first round by 6 – 2 6 – 4 7 – 6. Despite Grigor’s recent improvements, it’s still hard to trust on the Bulgarian due to his inconsistency, especially with the backhand. Looking now to Dimitrov’s prior appearances on this event, only once was Grigor able to reach the third round in five attempts.

Even though it hasn’t been an easy year for Jeremy Chardy, the French is known for performing at his best on Grand Slam events. After reaching the US Open 4th round for the first time in 2015, Chardy is looking for another successful journey in Flushing Meadows, with the French defending 21.82% of his total points on this event. Jeremy started his campaign with a straight-sets victory over Michael Mmoh, in a match where Chardy fired 16 aces and won 81.81% of the points played on his serve.

This will be the 4th career meeting between these two players, with Dimitrov leading on the h2h by 2 – 1.

Despite Dimitrov’s lead on the h2h, this is far from an easy match-up for the Bulgarian, who never won a match in straight sets against the French. Known for his outstanding inside out forehand, Chardy can create many problems with that shot to Dimitrov’s unreliable backhand. Even though we agree that Dimitrov deserves to be considered the favorite for this encounter, there is clear value on Chardy’s betting odds and for that reason, our suggestion is for you to place a bet on the French’s set handicap.


Free Tennis Pick: Jeremy Chardy +2.5 Set Handicap -161
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Gilles Simon (30) vs. Paolo Lorenzi

Known for his incredible physical conditions, Gilles Simon is never an easy opponent to face, especially on best of five sets matches. After two early losses in Cincinnati and Winston-Salem, Simon started his campaign in Flushing Meadows with a terrific victory over Radek Stepanek by 6 – 3 6 – 1 6 – 4. Even though Gilles is far from a big server, the French ended the match against Stepanek with very good stats on serve – winning 92.31% of his service games and facing only two break points throughout the entire match.

After losing seven consecutive matches on Grand Slam events, Paolo Lorenzi finally made it through to the second round with a 6 – 4 6 – 2 6 – 1 victory over Carlos Berlocq. Known for his clay court skills, Lorenzi is far from reliable on Hard Courts, with the Italian winning only 14.29% of the matches played throughout his career on this surface against top 50 opponents. Even though Lorenzi won 73.24% of the points played on his serve against Berlocq, the Italian ended the match with only 45.07% first serve in, which won’t be enough when facing higher quality opponents.

These two players will face each other for the third time on their careers with Simon leading on the h2h by 2 – 0.

Despite his competitive mindset, there isn’t much Lorenzi can do on this match against a higher quality opponent, especially in a surface where he’s far from comfortable. With this in mind, our suggestion is for you to add Simon’s spread to your betting picks, in a match where the French should get the job done in straight sets.

Free Tennis Pick: Gilles Simon -5 -112
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Record: 35-17-2 +17.30

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