Top Play on ATP London Finals Semifinals - Federer vs. Wawrinka

João Mourato

Friday, November 20, 2015 11:02 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 11:02 PM UTC

Two Suisse players will fight for a place in the decisive match of the ATP World Tour Finals. Join us while we analyze this contest and find out our in-play bet suggestion.

Roger Federer (3) vs. Stan Wawrinka (4)
As we predicted in our tournament preview, Roger Federer chances to win the group were quite good and the Suisse finished the round robin stage with three victories. After two impressive performances against Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic, Federer struggled to keep the same high level against Kei Nishikori, but still found a way to emerge victorious.

Roger’s out wide serve from the ad side has been very impressive; against Djokovic the Suisse served 67% from that side to the Serbian’s backhand. Federer’s numbers on serve haven’t been that impressive with 54.3% first serve in, however he has been able to serve at his best under pressure.

Despite losing his first match against Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka bounced back with two straight sets victories over David Ferrer and Andy Murray to reach semifinals. This is Stan’s third appearance at the O2 Arena and for the third straight year, he reaches semifinals.

We added Wawrinka to our tennis picks against Murray and the key for his success on that match was the ability to produce his best tennis on important points. The two times Grand Slam champion saved 8 of 10 break points and converted 3 of 5 chances. Stan is also struggling with his first serve, placing only 45% on his match against Murray and averaging 48.9% first serve in this week.

Federer leads 17 – 3 on h2h with Stan’s three victories occurring on clay. Last year Wawrinka had a massive chance to defeat Roger on this event; however, Federer saved 4 match points to claim the victory by 8 – 6 on third set tie break.

These slower courts suit Wawrinka’s game style, giving him more time to prepare his blistering groundstrokes. On the other hand, Federer also has more time do to the runaround to hit his forehand.

Roger is the main favorite and seems unlikely that he doesn’t win the match, however is hard to find value on him at the current tennis odds. Since 2012, 50% of Federer wins over Wawrinka were after losing the first set. Stan seems to have some kind of mental block against Roger and, with that in mind, our suggestion is to wait for a slow start from Federer to place a bet on him. 

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