Jordan’s WNBA Picks 32-36-1
Phoenix Mercury at LA Sparks
I’m really tempted to lay the points in this one, but these full game WNBA Odds are getting sharper as the season goes along. However, I think with the same logic that’s driving me towards the favorite, will also help our play on this game.
Chiney Ogwumike is set to return on Thursday, which is huge for the Sparks on both sides of the ball. Add in how well Candace Parker has been playing and you have a deadly trio for the Sparks when you throw in Nneka Ogwumike.
The Mercury, on the other hand, are still pretty banged up. They are still down two starters, and potentially three tonight if Briann January can’t give it a go. That has led to them working with a short bench over the last several weeks and it could really affect their defense in this one.
With that in mind, I think the Sparks hit the Mercury hard early in this one. However, that could mean scoring is plentiful on both sides of the ball early in this one.
The Sparks play at a pace of 100.8 in the first quarters of their home games, while the Mercury have played at a first-quarter pace over 100 in their last five games. During that stretch, Phoenix has allowed 99 points per 100 possessions in the first 10 minutes.
These two teams dropped a combined 40 and 51 first-quarter points in their first two meetings of the season. I would be surprised if either team were below 20 to start this game.
My Pick: 1Q OVER
Recommended Sportsbook: 5Dimes
Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm
I’m tempted to take the points in this one, but the Storm have been a different team playing at home this season opposed to the road, but there are some unique trends in this one that could open up some nice value.
We look at the Wings as this poor team, but they are anything but. In fact, their defense may be one of the better units on that side of the ball in the league.
Dallas’ offense is where they get into trouble and the books recognize this, making this game the lowest total of the night by far.
However, there could be some openings to fade conventional wisdom tonight on this game and make some money. While the Wings have a good defense and their offense can go into huge slumps occasionally, the Storm don’t exactly play slow and their defense has been anything but good lately.
Seattle has allowed 101.5 points per 100 possessions over their last five games and while the Wings have the league’s fourth-best defensive rating over their last five, they have given up a ton of first-quarter points over that time period.
In fact, they are allowing an average of 20.8 points per 1st quarter in their last five, which adds up to a defensive rating of 107.2.
Combine all this with Seattle’s pace of 100.8 in their last five 1st quarters and the over could be a fine play in this one as well. It’s already low hanging fruit thanks to Dallas’ reputation for scoring droughts, but against a fast-paced team that has been playing less and less defensive lately, it might be one of the sharper plays on the board tonight.
My Pick: OVER 1Q
Recommended Sportsbook: 5Dimes