Jordan’s WNBA Picks 44-43-3
Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx
I was a little too bullish on the Lynx Tuesday night and it ended with us taking an L on them as underdogs. However, they are in a much different situation Thursday night, as they host the Dallas Wings. While Minnesota has lost their last three in a row SU, they are still hanging onto a playoff spot. I see them coming away with the win tonight, but the Wings are no pushovers.
Dallas has played tough lately and if it weren’t for their defense, they would be a much better team. However, against Seimone Augustus, Odyssey Sims, and Sylvia Fowles tonight, the Wings are going to have a tough time on defense.
Dallas is allowing 98.7 points per 100 possessions this season and on the road, it grows to 103.8. However, while I’m taking a shot on the over on this one, the better play may be the first-half total.
Over their last five games, the Wings have allowed 107 points per 100 possessions in the first half and the Lynx have actually been worse than that, allowing a defensive rating of 110.2 in their last five first halves.
I could easily see these two teams combining for nearly 80 points in the first half of this one. In their last game against one another, the first half score was 53-41, so while I doubt it’s that high scoring tonight, I do expect the Lynx to put up close to 40 in the first half.
Indiana Fever at LA Sparks
Indiana may be headed for the draft lottery, but that hasn’t made them stop fighting. They have just run up against some really good teams lately and their defense has been strained under the weight of playing nine of their last 12 games against playoff teams.
Over their last five, the defense has collapsed too. We saw the Mystics break a WNBA record for three-pointers made against them on Sunday and over their last five, the Fever are allowing nearly 90 points per game and 111.8 points per 100 possessions.
Yet another playoff team that is hitting their stride runs up against the Fever tonight, and the Sparks will be fully healthy for the first time all season.
After serving a 10-game suspension due to domestic violence, Riquna Williams is set to be back in uniform for Thursday’s game. That is yet another potential scoring threat for the Sparks, who may run away with this one. However, the spread is pretty sharp and my hope is that the Fever can hit a few buckets in this one.
Indiana is also averaging a little over 101 points per 100 possessions over those last five games as well, so while they have been giving up a ton of points, other than their last game against the Liberty, they have been scoring a lot too.
Considering Indiana allows 108 points per 100 possessions on the road this season while owning the league’s third-best road offense, I like the over in this one if the Sparks chose to push pace.