ATP Tour Betting Preview: Australian Open

After a couple of weeks down under, the pros on the ATP Tour are ready for the first Grand Slam of the season. With Novak Djokovic officially out of the draw, things are wide open. That's where we come in with the best futures bets to make in our Australian Open picks.

Everyone knows what's at stake in Australia. Not only will the winner of the tournament etch their name in history, he will also receive 2,000 ranking points and a massive jolt up the tennis rankings.

Now that Djokovic is out, we have a real chance here at another first-time Grand Slam winner. Stefanos Tsitsipas' lack of form and injury has also opened the door for some of the rising stars to make a major impact in this draw.

Here are my outright picks for the ATP Tour's Australian Open in Melbourne, Australia (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

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Australian Open Betting Odds Analysis

With Djokovic's withdrawal, Daniil Medvedev - who won the last Grand Slam, the US Open - is the favorite here. Alexander Zverev, perhaps the best player on tour all year in 2021, has the next-best odds, followed by Rafael Nadal.

Australian Open Picks

Alexander Zverev (+250)Matteo Berrettini (+2000)Jannik Sinner (+2000)Taylor Fritz (+15000)

SEE ALSO: All Tennis Picks

Australian Open Predictions

Zverev +250

The value is lost here on Zverev, who was around +550 even just a few weeks ago, but I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't include him here. Zverev is my clear-cut pick to win the tournament.

It's easy to fade Medvedev given his draw. He'll need to fight to take out Nick Kyrgios and Ugo Humbert - two players he has never beaten in his career - then he'll likely face the pest known as Diego Schwartzman. By the time he makes it to Felix Auger-Aliassime or Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinal, he's going to be gassed, and if he's not by then he certainly would be by the time he got to the final against Zverev.

Zverev had no issues winning matches and tournaments last year, and his serve and backhand somehow got even better. The German was on the cusp of winning every slam, and it's pretty clear he's good enough to do so. He won't face any competition until he gets to the fourth round, and even then it's hard to see Denis Shapovalov bothering him all that much. From there, he'll just need to take out the player coming out of Djokovic's old quarter. It's possible he gets to the final with only one or two sets lost, and from there I think he wins comfortably.

Matteo Berrettini (+2000)

The top quarter is Berrettini's to lose at this point. He'll need to go to war early in the tournament with Brandon Nakashima and Carlos Alcaraz, but after that, the sailing should get a little smoother with the rest of the draw lacking in talent. Any semifinalist at +2000 which seems to have a clear path there is worth taking.

Berrettini has also debuted a new backhand this year in Australia, winning a match at the ATP Cup by swinging it rather than slicing it, driving the ball deep into the court. His backhand was his biggest weakness a year ago, and with some hard work, he's done well to make himself an even harder out.

Berrettini has been there before, too. He made his first Grand Slam final last year at Wimbledon and the semis at the US Open a couple of years ago. After pulling out of the Australian Open last year with an injury, he went to the quarterfinals of all three remaining Grand Slams.

He's got the power to make a real impact on these quick courts, and the draw seems to be open for him.

Jannik Sinner (+2000)

Sinner continues to get better with every passing week. The big story last year was his new-and-improved service motion, which led him to new heights. The Italian entered the top 10 and won four titles, nearly capturing a big fifth in the final of the Miami Masters.

Sinner is playing in what most would consider the weakest quarter. Tsitsipas has been out of form for quite some time now and is battling an elbow injury that caused him to pull out of some tournaments late last season. The biggest contender in his half of the quarter is Casper Ruud, a player still in over his head on hardcourts who he easily beat indoors last year.

Like Berrettini, Sinner has a clear path to the semifinals with no real competition in his quarter and, at these odds, he's a no-brainer.

Taylor Fritz (+15000)

Why not take a little stab here with the American? Something seemed to click late last year when Fritz skipped the Laver Cup to focus on the late-season California swing, a time which meant a lot to him given he's from the state. He nearly won Indian Wells, making a ridiculous run to the semifinals with wins over Berrettini, Sinner, and Zverev - the first two in straight sets. He also seemed to harness the huge power he has at long last, fighting hard, staying in points, and getting stronger mentally.

Fritz has to be playing with as much confidence as anyone here given he's beaten a long list of top-10 competition in just the last few months. With that, it's not hard to see him meeting Sinner in the final of his quarter. He's clearly a better player than Frances Tiafoe and Roberto Bautista-Agut at this point in time, and should he face Tsitsipas in the fourth round, it'll come after the Greek has gone to war twice in a row.

The point here is, it's not really impossible to see Fritz winning. That would have been an insane thing to say a year ago, but the fact is he's beaten Zverev, Sinner, Berrettini, and Rublev. While he has yet to conquer Medvedev or Nadal, he may not have to should the draw shake out as I expect.

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Australian Open picks made 1/16/2022 at 9:21 a.m. ET