Gentlemen’s Wimbledon Singles Draw Analysis and Preview
Which player is the best sports pick and are there any value plays amongst them or elsewhere for that matter?
Finally, the Wimbledon 2013 draw is out. Putting to bed the frenzied speculation about who might be so unlucky to draw the nightmarish potential quarterfinal clash with World No. 5 Rafael Nadal. And the winner is...drum roll...Roger Federer. Yup, that’s right. The seven-time Wimbledon champion is the hapless chap to have drawn the short straw.
Andy Murray’s camp may well be breathing a sigh of relief to have avoided Nadal in the last eight, but the reality is the World No.2 wasn’t exactly luckier at all as he’s fallen into the same section and could potentially face Nadal (or Federer) in the semis. Meanwhile, World No.1 Novak Djokovic is safely ensconced with David Ferrer in the top half of the draw, which, to all intents and purposes, has been dubbed the “easier” half; and partly because of this perceived straightforwardness in the top half, Djokovic, who’s long been in pole position in the futures market to win outright, now appears to be the best bet to win the coveted Wimbledon 2013 crown.
So is Novak Djokovic the best bet to win Wimbledon? Is he a value bet even? Or is a better bet lurking elsewhere in the draw. Is it Andy Murray who is hoping to become the first British champion since Fred Perry won it in 1936? Or is it Rafael Nadal who although is seeded fifth is riding formidable form into Wimbledon? Or is it Roger Federer who is vying to win his eighth Wimbledon title that would rival a historic feat accomplished only by Nadal?
Novak Djokovic odds drop as draw revealed
In the lead up to Wimbledon, Djokovic was listed as the favourite to win outright at +163 with Bet365 and at +188 with William Hill. Today, upon the draw reveal, Djokovic’s odds experienced an immediate and marked drop down to a lowly +125 at both sportsbooks. The implication obvious: his draw looks to be a merry traipse into the final.
David Ferrer book ends the top half of the draw and as far as top threats go, the fourth seed is the easy option of the lot, evinced nowhere more so than by his odds to win Wimbledon outright that are set at a hefty +5000.
Immediate threats to Djokovic’s bid do lurk in his quarter, namely Tommy Haas, Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych (+4000). Haas could be a tricky opponent in the R16. He has game on grass and he’s beaten Djokovic once this season already at Miami. Gasquet or Berdych could emerge in the quarterfinals and of the pair the latter is the more threatening to Djokovic, hands down. More importantly, Berdych has beaten Djokovic at Wimbledon before, in 2010 which is the same year he beat Federer as well en route to a runner-up finish to Nadal.
However, assuming all goes to plan and to seeding and he survives the aforementioned challenges – the semis loom straightforward with Ferrer (or Del Potro listed at a +4000 at Bet365) as potential threats. Ferrer has won titles on grass and has reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon whilst Del Potro hasn’t proven much of a threat on this surface. Against Djokovic though, the probability of a win on paper for either is the same: slim to none. Same can be said of just about anybody else that would emerge from the wide-open Ferrer-Del Potro section of the draw into the semis to challenge Djokovic. Grigor Dimitrov is one such player that could enjoy a Cinderella run and emerge from this section but that is the quintessential longshot tennis pick at +6600.
Potential quarter-final match-ups:
Novak Djokovic v Tomas Berdych
David Ferrer v Juan Martin Del Potro
Murray, Nadal and Federer in the same half of the draw
It really does seem rather cruel of the tennis gods to lump three of the best players into the same half of the draw, doesn’t it? Both from purely a tennis viewers’ perspective as well as a tennis betting perspective it’s rather scandalous – the latter of which, having this triplet thrust so together, means that handicapping Wimbledon has only become decidedly harder. It’s also worthwhile to mention all three have seen their odds to win Wimbledon spike up considerably.
Federer, who was listed at +500 has had his odds inflated to +700 on account of falling into Nadal’s path. Having said that, to reach the quarterfinals he potentially would have to overcome some serious obstacles with big-servers Lukas Rosol and Jerzy Janowicz, in the third and fourth rounds, respectively.
Rafael Nadal who was tipped at a decent +275 just last week is now found at a lush +400 at William Hill and Bet365. Nadal’s path is by far the most precarious some would say with John Isner or Stanislas Wawrinka looming as potential fourth round opponents.
Andy Murray meanwhile was a tempting +250 tennis pick before the draw reveal. Those inclined to back the Briton can now find him at an even more tempting +333 pick at Bet365 and a better yet +350 pick at William Hill. Although much of the talk is about Murray avoiding the nightmarish scenario of meeting Nadal in the quarterfinals, it’s not as if he won the lottery with the option of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, tipped at +2200 at Bet365. He also has Marin Cilic in his section as well as journeyman Benjamin Becker in his opening match, who is no cakewalk by any means.
Potential quarter-final match-ups:
Rafa Nadal v Roger Federer
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Andy Murray
Tennis Betting Verdict
Though the price is low on Djokovic, he is still a decent bet to win Wimbledon. Obviously, punters aren’t going to be flush with cash should he come through on those odds but as far as value goes, whenever you’re up in cash that’s good value for your money, right?
For those looking for the real value play as well as the most probable play, it’s in the bottom half of the draw. Indeed, the conspicuous market movement doesn’t bode well for the triplet of contenders contained within but recent history does seem to favour one player and that is...drum roll...Rafael Nadal.
Nadal as the No.5 seed is the ultimate dangerous floater. It doesn’t get worse than that for any player let alone Federer and Murray. Assuming all goes to plan and seeding, history suggests Nadal is the value play. Nadal has won their last five grand slam encounters with Federer, his last defeat to the maestro coming at the 2007 Wimbledon final. And he’s also won the last four grand slam meetings with Murray, two of which came at Wimbledon in the semi-final stage. Nadal has never had it easy at Wimbledon, this year being no exception and so we’re plumping down on his +400 betting odds to win outright as the value play.