Tennis Picks: Spread Analysis for Main Favorites on US Open Day 8

João Mourato

Sunday, September 6, 2015 3:33 PM GMT

After one week of action, the main favorites are looking to book a place in the quarterfinals but the underdogs won't go down without a fight. Can the top players cover the spread?

John Isner vs. Roger Federer
Roger Federer won once again in straight sets against Philipp Kohlschreiber however wasn’t able to keep his serve unbroken. This was clearly the match were Federer had more problems, his first serve % decreased from an average in last two matches of 67.5% to 60%, also was the match where he did more unforced errors and less winners with 27 winners and 26 unforced errors but this is normal because his opponent was also a higher level player.

John Isner was only able to reach once the quarter-finals of US Open in 2011, the highest ranked American has done a solid tournament so far defeating Malek Jaziri, Mikhail Youzhny and Jiri Vesely not being broken a single time so far.

Federer won 4 of previous 5 meetings and is the heavy favorite for this match, however Isner is always a very dangerous player with his massive serve and the strong support from the American crowd. John should take one or two sets to tie break also with high chances to win at least one set so we’ll skip the -5.0 spread at -115 on Federer.

 

Stan Wawrinka vs. Donald Young
Once again Stan Wawrinka managed to win in three close sets, this time against Ruben Bemelmans 6 – 3 7 – 6 6 – 4. After two solid performances on serve Stan struggled against Bemelmans with only 45% first serve in and being broken three times but once again raised the level when he needed to win in straight sets.

Donald Young is for the second time in 4th round of US Open after another huge comeback against Viktor Troicki. It was the second match this week where Donald came from two sets down to emerge victorious. Young has very good counter puncher skills but struggles to keep a consistent game level and yesterday he showed that by losing second set 0 – 6 with Troicki.

The h2h is 1 – 1, in 2011 Young pulled out one of his biggest wins against Wawrinka in five sets, however this time it will be very hard for him to repeat that. Has been a very long week for Young so far with two exhausting five sets battles, adding to that he has been playing Men’s doubles and mixed doubles (he will play today mixed doubles). It is true that doubles isn’t very demanding physically, but still would be nice for him to have a day to rest today and not having to play doubles after such a tough battle. Young has problems to keep the intensity and Wawrinka should be able to take at least one set by big margin so we’ll take his handicap with our tennis picks.

Tennis Pick: Stan Wawrinka -7 at -114 at BetOnline

 

Varvara Lepchenko vs. Victoria Azarenka
Victoria Azarenka defeated Angelique Kerber in almost three hours finishing the match with 51 winners and 33 unforced errors. Was probably the best women match on this US Open and Azarenka showed her physical problems are behind her and she’s ready to fight for the title.

Varvara Lepchenko reached 4th round of US Open for the first time in her career after a great comeback against Mona Barthel in previous round. Varvara’s biggest weapon is her left-handed forehand but she’ll have many problems to impose her tennis against Azarenka.

The last match between them was this year in Birmingham where Lepchenko had a very good lead in first set but allowed Azarenka to turn the match 7 – 6 6 – 4. Vika knows that after such a huge match against Kerber she’ll need an easier one to spend few time on court and be fresher for next rounds. Azarenka is playing at a superb level with her backhand down the line making a lot of damage and I expect her to use that weapon to attack Lepchenko’s weaker backhand on this match.

Tennis Pick: Victoria Azarenka -6 at +105 at Pinnacle

 

Sabine Lisicki vs. Simona Halep
Simona Halep keeps playing a very solid tennis defeating in last round Shelby Rogers 6 – 2 6 – 3 winning impressive 91% of points with first serve and playing very solid from the baseline. Simona has been improving her return skills and also her counter puncher skills which makes her even a more dangerous opponent.

Sabine Lisicki was almost out of the competition being 1 – 5 down in third set against Barbora Zahlavova Strycova. She was struggling physically not being able to move so well and decide to go for every shot and it paid off with a massive comeback from the German but Barbora should have done better and she was too passive waiting for Sabine mistakes.

The last match between them was in Wimbledon 2014 where Halep destroyed Lisicki 6 – 4 6 – 0 with her counter puncher skills making a huge damage on the German. Lisicki was struggling with her baseline movement and Halep should take advantage of that getting the ball very early and exposing the German problems. Halep is returning to serve very well, this is a good matchup for her and she should cover the -5 spread on the tennis odds board.

Tennis Pick: Simona Halep -5 at -110 at Pinnacle