Tennis Picks: Spread Analysis for Main Favorites on US Open Day 6

João Mourato

Friday, September 4, 2015 10:19 PM GMT

Join us while we analyze the spread of three main favorites in the men's singles draw that will get in action this Saturday for the third round of the US Open.

Roger Federer vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Roger Federer has been just unbelievable so far with two massive performances destroying Leonardo Mayer and Steve Darcis. Federer hasn’t been broken, his forehand is at great level and he is also playing with a very offensive mindset going to the net 53 times in his first two matches.

Philipp Kohlschreiber has good groundstrokes and is a pretty talented player, however is also very erratic and lately hasn’t been performing at his best. After a tough 5 sets win over Alexander Zverev he was able to defeat Lukas Rosol in straight sets, but Lukas was just too erratic with 28 winners and 43 unforced errors.

Federer leads h2h 10 – 0, this year Kohlschreiber was very close from beating the Suisse in Halle losing 6 – 7 6 – 3 6 – 7 but Roger is just at an unstoppable level at the time and should take this match in three easy sets covering his spread.

Tennis Pick: Roger Federer -8.0 at -103 at 5Dimes

 

Andy Murray vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Andy Murray had to dig deep to overcome Adrian Mannarino after being 2 sets down, however the French was without any energy left in the three last sets with Murray winning 5 – 7 4 – 6 6 – 1 6 – 3 6 – 1. Andy was playing too passive and Mannarino was very pleased by that with very long rallies in the first two sets that suited Mannarino’s style.

Thomaz Bellucci is an extremely talented player with a great left-handed forehand and he can always be a tough opponent to anyone. This week Bellucci defeated James Ward and Yoshihito Nishioka in straight sets and is for the first time in third round of the US Open. Thomaz already showed this year that he can cause problems to top players winning a set against Novak Djokovic in Rome.

Despite playing his best on clay, Bellucci can also perform at great level on Hard Court but his main problem is to be consistent and strong mentally. This is a match where Bellucci feels very comfortable because has nothing to lose and he has tennis to create problems to Murray. They played once on clay in 2011 where Bellucci won 6 – 4 6 – 2.

Murray is the main favorite and should win this, but won’t be an easy match and there is no value betting on him to cover the spread -8.5 at -104 with our tennis picks.

 

Stan Wawrinka vs. Ruben Bemelmans
Stan Wawrinka keeps playing at his “minimum effort level” with another win in three very close sets. Stan defeated Hyeon Chung 7 – 6 7 – 6 7 – 6 in a match where he was very erratic, despite making 62 winners he finished the match with 66 unforced errors. Wawrinka said he has been struggling to keep focused and in his two matches played at an average level but managed to raise it in the end of each set.

Ruben Bemelmans is for the first time in third round of a Grand Slam, the Belgian is a good server and takes advantage of being left-handed to create problems with a very open serve from advantage side. Despite being more a Challenger level player, he can be very competitive but his main problem is clearly to keep a consistent level. After a good win over Gilles Muller he was very lucky that Jack Sock just collapsed physically when Bemelmans was losing 1 – 2 in sets.

Stan shouldn’t have much problems to win this match he’s clearly a higher level player, however his lack of effort is obvious and we just can’t trust on him to cover his spread -8.5 at +113 tennis odds. In two previous rounds he wasn’t able to cover the spread with a clear lack of effort so once again we’ll avoid it.