Wimbledon 2013 draw has been turned upside down. At the start of the tournament, the bottom half of the draw was the so-called ‘Group of Death’ with Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga drawn together. Week 2 and three of the aforementioned four protagonists out, the bottom half of the draw appears to be a walk in the park. Benefactor: Andy Murray who remains alive and well in the tournament and who appears to be in the best position of all quarterfinalists to win the title this year. Novak Djokovic, the tournament favourite to win outright, has been playing sensational tennis so far, still has Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro strewn in his path to the final. He’s got the tougher road indeed.
Djokovic the hot favourite to win the title
Djokovic has the Wimbledon market cornered as the -120 favourite to win outright whilst Andy Murray is sniffing at his heels as the value play (of the two favourites) at +138 to win the title outright at Bet365. After this tandem however, the Wimbledon market gets rather curious with Jerzy Janowicz who has never won a title let alone made it into a Grand Slam final as the odds makers third pick at +1600. Granted, his odds are significantly higher than Djokovic or Murray’s odds are but still? Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro are both set at +2200 – it’s worthwhile to note that Berdych was a Wimbledon finalist in 2010 and Del Potro a US Open champion in 2009. Finally, David Ferrer, this year’s French Open runner-up, is tipped at +2800 while Fernando Verdasco and Lukas Kubot are tipped at +6600 and +15000, respectively.
Top half of the draw looms ominous
Djokovic is set to take on Berdych in the quarterfinals on Wednesday firmly installed as the whopping -800 betting odds favourite to Berdych’s +500 price tag at Bet365. The way Djokovic has been playing it would take a courageous punter to bet against him. Or would it?
On paper, it would. Djokovic holds the 13-2 lifetime head-to-head edge over Berdych which includes an eleven straight wins. Add to that the fact that he’s the more consistent player, has more variety in his game and does just about everything better than Berdych does.
That said Berdych is a top-ten threat and he was a Wimbledon runner-up three years ago after beating (ironically) Djokovic in the quarters and Federer in the semis before losing to Nadal in the final. Berdych also owns a victory over Djokovic this year having beaten him in Rome, a feat that improves his H2H with the Serbian starlet to 1-2 this year.
David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro set up a rather interesting affair. Think grass court tennis threats and neither would spring to mind immediately, an estimation encapsulated by their long odds to win the title. That said one of them has the chance at least to make it into the semis, if not to the final.
Odds makers favour David Ferrer but only slightly at -150 while Del Potro is a mere +120 puppy. Ferrer is enjoying an impressive season and until the French Open he was considered one of the best players never to have made it into a grand slam final. He has a 6-2 edge over Del Potro which includes a run of four straight wins – including a victory in the R16 last year at Wimbledon. So, at -150 he certainly is a value pick. Del Potro however is a dangerous floater. He did beat Djokovic at the London 2012 Olympics in straight sets and that augurs well for him against Ferrer. Del Potro is enjoying a solid enough season (it could be better though) so confidence and form look promising as well.
Quarterfinal Picks and Predictions
Popular opinion has Djokovic beating Berdych and advancing into the semis. If that is your pick, you’ll need to look at prop markets for value on Djokovic – bookies favour a straight set win at -125 but you’ll find better odds for a four set win to Djokovic at +250. If the upset bug has swayed you, Berdych at +500 is a cracking pick. As well, a five set win at to the Czech at +1200 – which is most likely what it would take to beat the tournament favourite.
Murray owns the bottom half of the draw
Andy Murray is set to take on Fernando Verdasco in the quarterfinals but odds makers are quite confident in the No.1 Brit having installed him as the runaway favourite at -1600 to win outright. From the start of the tournament, the overwhelming question was whether this was Murray’s year to win Wimbledon. After week 1 was put to bed, certainly it’s his best chance yet. Verdasco at +900 at Bet365 to mastermind the upset is a long shot bet, highlighted by Murray’s 8-1 head-to-head record over the Spaniard. Verdasco’s lone victory over Murray came at the Australian Open in 2009, his breakout season when he made it all the way to the semis and delivered one of the best performances against Nadal still talked about today. The chances of that happening again are slim to none.
Finally, Jerzy Janowicz and Lukas Kubot have set up an all-Polish affair in the Wimbledon quarterfinals and although bookies favour Janowicz at -350 it’s arguably a tossup between the pair seeing that neither has been to a grand slam semi before let alone won a title of note. Janowicz however did make the Paris Masters final last year and on the whole is the better player.
Quarterfinal Picks and Predictions
Murray to defeat Verdasco is the obvious pick, but not the value pick. To find value, prop markets offer additional angles: a straight set win is on offers of -200 while a four set win is priced at attractive + 275. As far as the Polish affair goes, given the magnitude of the occasion and the nerves that both will probably feel, it could go either way. Janowicz to win is the obvious pick and to do it in straight sets is a value play at +100. However, a five-set win is a tastier tennis pick at +550.Check out the Women's QF Here~