The Australian Open final has gone according to market expectations ahead of the semifinals, which had a Nadal vs. Wawrinka clash listed as the favoured outcome at +150 at Bet365. Bravo to tennis betting fans that banked on the outcome and followed our free tennis picks.
Now, let’s see if we can successfully predict the outcome for the final, shall we.
Rafa going for # 14
Rafael Nadal advanced into the Australian Open final with a straight set win over Roger Federer, coming through on his favoured tennis odds of -188 to win outright and our tennis betting prediction.
Nadal was in fine form in the semi-finals, wrecking havoc on Federer in a 7-6 (4), 6-3, 6-3. It was his best match of the Australian Open yet. Gone were the jittery nerves of his previous matches, particularly against Nishikori and Dimitrov. Gone were the issues with his nasty blister as he timed the ball crisply and ripped forehands and backhands seemingly at will. Best aspect of his game were his passing shots that reduced Federer’s attacking intentions at the net, which were so successful against Tsonga and Murray mind, to clueless forays. It was vintage Nadal all the way.
Nadal was in a class of his own last night and although he cruelly denied the tennis betting public what it craves for the most whenever this billing features, an epic five-set marathon. He served notice to Wawrinka about his intentions on Sunday to win the title, which at the end of the day, when all is said and done in Oz, is what matters the most to players.
And it’s most fitting that 14-time Grand Slam champion Pete Sampras flew into Melbourne yesterday, specially invited by the tournament for the trophy ceremony. Who better to hand Nadal’s 14th title than Pete Sampras, the man who set the record and was long the standard in tennis; that is, until Roger Federer surpassed him in the history books.
Stanimal reaches his first-ever final
Stanislas Wawrinka is enjoying his coming out party in Melbourne, a belated party in the minds of many sports betting fans and experts alike, all of whom have long recognised his skill and talent but been frustrated by his inability to breakthrough meaningfully.
The long wait is finally over as Wawrinka reaches his first-ever major final, doing so in fine style with a gauntlet throwing win over four-time Australian Open champion and three-time defending champion Novak Djokovic. A five-set marathon that lived up to its billing and last year’s two encounters between the pair on the major stage – Australian Open R16 and US Open semis.
Importantly, Wawrinka underscored his upset win over Djokovic in the quarters with a solid victory over Berdych in the semis, proving sportsbooks were right to tip him as the tennis betting favourite at -138 to win outright and coming through on our tennis free picks.
Tennis Betting Verdict: Predictably, Nadal is the runaway favourite to win the Australian Open at -700 at Bet365. And overwhelmingly the tennis betting public is backing Nadal to victory.
This doesn’t mean that Wawrinka, who is a long shot bet at +450 tennis odds or thereabouts depending on the sportsbook of choice, couldn’t mastermind the upset. In beating Djokovic, he proved he could rise to the occasion. But it’s one thing to beat a player of the Nadal-Djokovic ilk deep into a tournament, another to do it in the final of a major.
The worry for Stan backers is the sheer magnitude of the occasion, the all-consuming reality that could overwhelm Wawrinka. Wawrinka has also spent more time on court than Nadal in his last two matches and it remains to be seen what’s left in his tank both physically and emotionally. What’s more – and this is the worst bit for Stan backers – Nadal not only owns Wawrinka 12-0 lifetime but also has never dropped a set to the Swiss. To say that is a poor record is an understatement.
On balance, this is an intriguing matchup for the final of the first major of the year. It should be a great battle. Nonetheless since Nadal has the clear edge over Wawrinka in every aspect, he has to be the correct tennis pick to win it all.
Tennis Free Picks: Nadal to win outright at -700