Tennis Picks: Early Men's Wimbledon Odds & Preview

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, June 18, 2013 7:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 18, 2013 7:12 PM UTC

Wimbledon is just around the corner, and the odds to win outright are already on the boards. So what are tennis bettors waiting for? Find out who we think is worth backing with your tennis picks in the mens draw.

Find out how the bookmakers grade the field and where we think the sports betting value is to be had.

As in every major tennis betting event, the usual suspects are served up by the bookies as the top four favourites. The order in which they are cast however varies depending on which major is in question. As far as Wimbledon is concerned, Novak Djokovic leads the market while Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal closely follow. Roger Federer meanwhile is a distant fourth. Is the champion contained within this group or will an outside long shot send seismic shockwaves through tennis betting markets?

Before placing your bets, let SBR's 'Wimbledon Betting Odds & Preview' help you find the best tennis odds on offer.

Novak Djokovic leads the field as the odds on favourite

2011 Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic gets the nod from bookies as the odds-on favourite for the title this year. Listed at +163 with Bet365 and a slightly more attractive +188 at William Hill, the Serbian starlet has the market cornered in his camp.

Last year, Novak Djokovic’s title defence campaign ended in the semi-finals when he was beaten by eventual champion Roger Federer, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. Djokovic is set to make his ninth appearance at the All England Club. He boasts a 32-7 record and since 2009 he’s made the quarterfinals or better. So far this season, Djokovic has a 33-5 mark with three titles, including the Australian Open.

Andy Murray, last year’s runner-up, rings in as the second favourite for the title and, for the most part, sportsbooks have him listed unanimously at +250 to win outright.

The British No.1 realised Great Britain’s anxious 74-year-long wait for a male finalist when he defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semis last year. However, his quest for a first Grand Slam title and Great Britain’s hope for a first champion since 1936 ended in tears as it came to a heartbreaking end when he lost to Federer in four sets, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.

Inasmuch as that defeat was disappointing, he didn’t have too long to dwell on it. Barely a month later, Murray’s tears of joy washed over the luscious lawns of the All England Club as he claimed the Gold medal at the London Olympics and, shortly afterwards, he managed to make his first breakthrough into the Grand Slam champion’s circle by winning the US Open title.

Murray is set to make his eighth appearance at Wimbledon. He takes a 30-7 record, which includes making the quarterfinals or better since 2008. To date, Murray is 22-5 on the season with two titles. He’s competing this week at the AEGON Championships where he hopes to underscore his bid for Wimbledon with the title.

Two-time Wimbledon champion Rafael Nadal, despite enjoying one of the best starts to a season by any player encapsulated by a staggering 43-2 record and seven titles, which include three Masters and an historic eighth overall French Open title, is listed as the third heir to the Wimby throne at betting odds of +275 with Bet365 and +300 with William Hill.

It’ll be Nadal’s ninth appearance in the prestigious Championships. He owns a 36-6 record, which includes a run of five consecutive finals from 2006 to 2011. Last year, that impressive run was snapped by the unlikeliest of players – Lukas Rosol, who ranked at No.100 and who had never previously beaten any player of note.

Finally, propping up the top four favourites for the Wimbledon title is none other than seven-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer. True story: the King of Grass is the fourth in line to reign over the coveted principality and to win only his eighth title overall at a whopping +500 at Bet365 and a slightly shorter +450 at William Hill.

The Swiss maestro is gearing up for his 15th appearance at the All England Club. To date, he has a 66-7 record and 7 Wimby titles, five of which he won in a row between 2003 and 2007. In 2008, Nadal denied him his sixth straight Wimby – what would have been a record – in an epic final, arguably one of the best ever at a Grand Slam and that is still a major talking point today. He bounced back in 2009, winning his sixth title in a memorable final against Andy Roddick.

In the subsequent two years, Federer was dismissed in the quarterfinals by Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, respectively – something that had naysayers all too eagerly foretelling doom forevermore. But he put paid on that notion when he won his seventh Wimby last year. 

This season Federer’s struggles have been more conspicuous than in previous seasons. To date, he is 22-7 with no titles. He’s seeking his first title this week in Halle, Germany.

Noteworthy outsiders according to bookies in order of odds: Jo Wilfried Tsonga (+1400), Juan Martin Del Potro (+2500) Grigor Dimitrov (+4000), Tomas Berdych (+4000), Milos Raonic (+6600), Tommy Haas (+6600), Jerzy Janowicz (+8000) and David Ferrer (+8000).

Tennis Betting Verdict: Every time a Grand Slam rolls in, experts and pundits alike trot out players that have a “perceived” outside shot at the title yet history tells a distinct story. From 2005 to 2011 it was largely a duopoly between Federer and Nadal at the Grand Slam level. Only three players broke through during that stretch: Marat Safin (2005 Aussie Open), Novak Djokovic (2008 Australian Open) and Juan Martin Del Potro (2009 US Open). Since 2011 however, Federer and Nadal were forced to divvy up the loot with Djokovic (now at 6 titles) and Murray (1). So if we were to crunch numbers: 32 of the last 34 Grand Slams have been won by one of these four illustrious players. What does this mean for the upcoming Wimbledon? That it’s more likely than not one of them will win the title. Question is which one?

Tennis Free Picks: Based purely on form and confidence right now Nadal is the best play and at +300, he’s also a value play.
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