Tennis Picks: ATP World Tour Finals Line-Up & Odds Preview

Nikki Adams

Saturday, November 8, 2014 6:37 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 8, 2014 6:37 PM UTC

Flush off of a win in Paris, Novak Djokovic headlines the field at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London. Join us as we preview the tennis odds and serve up our tennis betting analysis and early free tennis picks.

Barclay’s ATP World Tour Finals Line-Up Set
Although the draw is yet to be released, we do know the Top 8 players descending on the prestigious season-ending finals in London. And with future odds on the Barclay’s ATP World Tour Finals now in full swing across sportsbook platforms, we preview the field in order to determine which players offer the best tennis betting value.

At first glance, it would appear to be a two-horse race between Djokovic (+100 to win outright) and Federer (+275 to win outright), an intriguing race to the title that is also underscored by their battle for the year-end No.1 ranking. The only other conceivable contender according to market analysts is Andy Murray, tipped at +550 to win outright. The rest of the field is priced in the four-digit range and it includes a mix of pretenders and newcomers: Stanislas Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic.


Djokovic Top Favourite
Djokovic earned his landmark 600th career win on Sunday and retained his Paris Masters title in a convincing, one-sided victory over Canadian Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-3. Djokovic became the first man ever to win back-to-back Paris Masters titles, his third overall crowning achievement at the ultimate ATP 1000 Masters event on the season.

He accomplished the feat in the face of speculation about his focus; the Serbian starlet had had a life-altering week prior to the start of the Paris Masters with the birth of his son. Pundits and experts alike wondered whether it would prove a distraction, thwart his campaign prematurely somehow – nappy duty and the responsibility that comes with fatherhood could change his priorities and interfere with his practice time, so the thinking went. It turned out to be no such thing. As Djokovic navigated a successful campaign through the rounds, his value as the top favourite for the upcoming Barclays ATP World Tour final only gained traction in tennis betting circles. Consummate professional, always prepared, ready to compete at the highest level, he’s in a league of his own – quite rightly the top tennis pick to win outright at +100.

Winning Paris saw Djokovic take a big step towards securing the year-end No.1 ranking. Roger Federer is still within a shot of the coveted top spot – only 1,310-points separate him from the Serb in the ATP Race To London. As the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals offers 1,500 points to the champion, Federer could still snatch the year-end No.1 ranking from Djokovic’s grasp.


Roger Federer Second Favourite 
Going into Paris, Roger Federer had whittled down Djokovic’s edge to 490 points in the ATP Race To London. Losing to Raonic in the quarterfinals of Paris saw Federer miss an opportunity to overtake the No.1 spot there and then and the Serbian took full advantage by traipsing to the title.

If Roger Federer hopes to decide the No.1 battle successfully in two weeks time in London, he’ll need to surpass two-time defending champion Novak Djokovic. Federer has won this event six times, which underscores his tempting +275 tennis odds, the second favourite to win the coveted title. The last time Federer won the title was in 2011. In 2012, he was a finalist (l. to Djokovic 7-6(6), 7-5, and last year he was eliminated by Rafael Nadal in the semis.


Andy Murray Third Favourite
The last month of the season was a whirlwind for Andy Murray and his camp. Sat on the cusp of qualifying to London, the Scot reeled off three titles in rapid succession and a quarterfinal appearance at the Paris Masters in order to secure his place amongst the best of the best in tennis.

Andy Murray has never won the coveted title. His best: a semi-final appearance in 2008, 2010 and 2012. Last year, he was forced to give the event a skip on account of an ailing back that required surgery.

Andy Murray was visibly fatigued in his quarterfinal loss to Djokovic. Murray was coming off a gruelling three-set marathon final against Robredo in Valencia on Sunday, which proved to be the longest three-set final when all was said and done. Fortunately, Murray has almost a fortnight to recover before launching his campaign in London. That he’s finally finding form at this late stage of the season hasn’t gone unnoticed by bookies, who list the British No.1 as the third favourite at +550 to win outright in tennis betting markets.


The Pretenders
While Djokovic and Federer enter the tennis betting market as the top two favourites for the title, in tune to their current ranking, the rest of the field is priced with complete disregard to the ATP hierarchy.

For instance, Stanislas Wawrinka, who is fourth in the ranking, is actually the long shot of the tournament at +2200 tennis odds to win outright. So dramatically his stock value has fallen since his incredible start to the season behind a maiden Grand Slam victory. Repeated failures on big occasions and generally ambiguous results on the season have revealed that particular landmark breakthrough to be a flash in the pan of the career of a perennial pretender. Consequently, he’s fallen out of favour in tennis betting circles. So too has No.7 and US Open champion Marin Cilic, who’s struggled since his landmark breakthrough a few months ago and enters the Finals as the +1600 long shot to win outright.

No. 5 Tomas Berdych his set to make his fifth appearance in as many seasons, but his +1400 tennis odds to win this event are shared with No.8 Milos Raonic, a player set to make his debut at the season-ending finals. That the Czech has reached the knockout stage only once in four appearances (l. to Tsonga in the semis) is behind this less than favourable outlook.

Kei Nishikori looms as a tempting +1200 tennis bet to win the title outright; the Japanese No.1 makes history by qualifying for the event and of all the so-called pretenders his season speaks the loudest – a runner-up finish at the US Open and four ATP titles, two of which were ATP 500s.


Tennis Betting Verdict
Time and again, experience proves to be the key deciding factor on such a prestigious, big-stage occasion. Of the field only two players are proven champions – Djokovic and Federer. As such, sharp money is with either on your tennis picks. For an outside tennis bet, Murray or Nishikori loom tempting. However, it’s better to wait until the draw is revealed before putting serious stakes on those or any player other player outside of the top tandem.

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