Tennis Picks: ATP US Open Day 12 Value Plays

Joao Mourato

Friday, September 11, 2015 7:16 PM GMT

Four Grand Slam champions will be on action this Friday for the US Open Men's semifinals but only two of them will be in Sunday's final. Join us to find out what are the top plays for Day 12.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Marin Cilic (9)
Defending champion Marin Cilic has been far from impressive, however his serve has helped him in many situations to get him out of troubles. Cilic should have won in straight sets the match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, he had a two sets to love lead and Tsonga was clearly struggling with a knee injury but the Croatian played too passive from the baseline allowing Tsonga to take control of the rallies with the forehand. Marin has fired so far a total of 111 aces with an average of 5.55 aces per set, however is only averaging 56.2% first serve in and giving many chances to his opponents to play on his second serve.

Novak Djokovic is looking for his 6th US Open final and after losing a set in last two matches he is determined to make perform at a more solid level. Djokovic had a tough match against Feliciano Lopez, the Spanish with his slices is a very tricky player and Novak has always struggled against opponents who use very often the slice. Despite losing a set was still a very solid performance from Djokovic with 36 winners / 17 unforced errors and was only broken once.

Novak has a big edge on h2h leading 13 – 0 and this season won the two matches they played in straight sets. Cilic is playing too passive from the baseline and will have many problems against Novak solid groundstrokes, the Serbian is also a very good returner and with Cilic knows that he has to serve even faster which might lead to a decrease in his first serve %. This should be a good match for Djokovic to get back to straight sets victories and our advice is to take that bet.

Tennis Pick: Novak Djokovic -2.5 Set Handicap at +110 at Bovada

 

Stan Wawrinka (5) vs. Roger Federer (2)
Roger Federer keeps his impressive run after an easy win over Richard Gasquet, Roger has now 10 consecutive victories all in straight sets and was only broken twice in those 10 matches. Federer has been serving very well and with a super aggressive mindset going to the net whenever he has the chance. Other thing he has been changing is the backhand, he’s playing much more aggressive instead of using the slice but against more powerful players that tactic isn’t so effective.

Stan Wawrinka has been raising the level match after match and did an extremely solid performance against Kevin Anderson not losing his serve a single time and knowing exactly what he had to do on court. The main problem for Wawrinka so far is his first serve %, so far averaging on this tournament only 51.8% first serve in but his first serve points won have been improving match after match starting with 75% on first match and against Anderson won 94%.

Wawrinka only won three of previous 19 meetings and they were all on clay but Stan has been able to put a lot of troubles recently to Federer and this year Wawrinka defeated his fellow countryman in straight sets at French Open. Stan has more power from the baseline and can do a lot of damage on Federer who is clearly overrated for this contest that should be very close. Our advice is to take the Over bet with your tennis picks in a match that should go to distance and due to the high quality of the servers there should be also at least one tie break.

Tennis Pick: Over 39.5 at +101 tennis odds