Tennis Picks: ATP Monte Carlo Semifinals Top Plays

João Mourato

Friday, April 15, 2016 9:14 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 15, 2016 9:14 PM UTC

Join us and find out our two top betting selections for the ATP Monte Carlo Semifinals. We'll provide a detailed analysis, explaining why you should grab these two valuable tennis picks.

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Andy Murray (2)
With one of his best performances in recent months, Rafael Nadal dismissed the 2015 French Open champion, Stan Wawrinka, by 6 – 1 6 – 4. As we mentioned in our Day 6 article, the victory over Dominic Thiem in the previous round was a massive boost to the Spaniard’s confidence, with Nadal dominating the match with his forehand. With Novak Djokovic already out, Rafael is the main favorite for the trophy. Nadal ended the match against Stan with great numbers – 14 winners / 13 unforced errors and winning 7/7 points at the net.

After a tremendous battle on the 3rd round against Benoit Paire – where Murray recovered from a set down, a double break down on the 2nd set and a break down on the 3rd – Andy experienced no problems on his quarterfinals contest against Milos Raonic, crushing the Canadian by 6 – 2 6 – 0. Murray was also extremely sharp at the net, winning 12/12 points and ending the match with an impressive stat, not allowing a single ace to Raonic.

These two players know each other well with 24 previous meetings between them. Nadal leads on h2h by 16 – 6 and if we look at the matches played on clay the numbers are even more impressive, with Nadal winning 6 of the previous 7 contests.

Murray surprise Nadal last year at Madrid, achieving his first career victory over the Spaniard on clay. However, not only was Nadal far from his best at the time but also the altitude conditions in Madrid don’t suit Rafael’s game style. We believe Nadal should revenge that loss and get the win on this match yet, his price is incredibly low for this contest. With this in mind, we suggest taking advantage on Murray’s tennis odds value by placing a bet on the Over.

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Free Tennis Pick: Over 22 (-114)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle 


Gael Monfils (13) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8)
For the second consecutive year, Gael Monfils reaches the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters semifinals. The French has been a solid investment for us throughout the week, covering his spread on the third round against Jiri Vesely and on the quarterfinals against Marcel Granollers. Gael has been incredibly solid this week, not giving any free points to his opponents and really focused on matches.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is also for the second time on his career on this event’s semifinals, after losing on his previous appearance in 2013 against Rafael Nadal. Tsonga achieved his first victory of the year over a top 10 opponent at the quarterfinals, defeating Roger Federer by 3 – 6 6 – 2 7 – 5. Despite his remarkable victory, Tsonga struggled when involved in longer rallies, winning only 3 of the 12 points over 9 shots.

This will be the 7th career meeting between these two players, with Tsonga leading on h2h by 4 – 2; however, this will be their first contest on clay.

One thing is certain, one French player will be on court this Sunday to play the final. Both love to compete on French soil with the home support but this time the crowd won’t help them, since they will be happy with any outcome. One of Tsonga’s keys on his victory against Federer was the way he explored Roger’s one-handed backhand but this time, he’ll face one of the best defenders on tour. We mentioned that Jo-Wilfried struggled on longer rallies and he’ll have to play a lot of them against Gael. We believe Gael will return to a Masters 1000 final and for that reason, you should add him to your tennis picks.

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Free Tennis Pick: Gael Monfils ML (-112)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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