Tennis Picks: ATP Monte Carlo Final Top Play & Betting Analysis

João Mourato

Saturday, April 16, 2016 5:04 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 16, 2016 5:04 PM UTC

Join us on our daily coverage of the ATP Monte Carlo event. Find out our top tennis pick for the Final and why should you place this valuable tennis bet.

Gael Monfils (13) vs. Rafael Nadal (5)
As we predicted in our ATP Monte Carlo Semifinals analysis, Rafael Nadal had to fight hard on his match against Andy Murray, with the Spaniard recovering from a set down before booking a place on his 10th career final in Monte Carlo – the first since 2013. Nadal keeps improving the level of his game, with the former world no.1 regaining confidence on himself and playing extremely well under pressure throughout the week – saving 76.47% of the break points he  faced and converting 50% of the chances he had.

Without dropping a single set this week, Gael Monfils reach his first Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters final. We picked Gael on his semifinals match against his fellow countryman, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Monfils matched the expectations with a 6 – 1 6 – 3 triumph. Gael’s serve has been very solid this week, with the French placing an average of 75.3% first serve while his career average is 61.7%. The reason for this numbers is the fact that Monfils is using more often his kick serve, on his match against Tsonga his first serve average speed was 96.93 MPH (156 KMH) while Tsonga’s for example was 113.71 MPH (183 KMH).

This will be the 14th career meeting between these two players, with Nadal leading on h2h by 11 – 2.

If we look at their previous contests on clay, Nadal won all the four in straight sets but this time, things might not be that easy. Monfils is playing at a great level and with the crowd cheering for him, he’s even a more dangerous player. The value is clearly on Gael’s tennis odds and like we did at the semi-finals on the Nadal vs. Murray match, we’ll add the Over to our tennis picks to explore that value.

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Free Tennis Pick: Over 21.5 (-114)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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