Tennis Picks: ATP Dubai Betting Analysis & Free Best Value Selections

João Mourato

Sunday, February 21, 2016 5:57 PM GMT

The world no.1 returns to competition in Dubai, where he'll be looking to extend his dominance. Find out who are the main contenders, the player to keep an eye on and the best value tennis picks.

ATP Dubai
The Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships takes place in Dubai and will be played on Hard Court.

 

Main Contenders
The four-time ATP Dubai champion, Novak Djokovic, will be looking to extend his winning streak in 2016. The world no.1 has won all the 12 matches he's played so far, and he’s once again the main contender to grab the title. Roger Federer has been Djokovic’s biggest opponent on this event, but this year the Suisse won’t compete on this tournament. The Serbian shouldn’t experience any problems until the final, with Roberto Bautista Agut, Viktor Troicki and Feliciano Lopez being the highest ranked players he can face before the decisive match. With this in mind, and despite Novak’s low price at 1.40 on Bet365, we believe he will lift the trophy and this will be should be a winning bet.

After a seven-year absence, Stan Wawrinka returns to ATP Dubai. Stan comes from a poor loss at ATP Marseille quarterfinals, but as we referred in our Wawrinka’s Player Profile Analysis, the Suisse is known for struggling to perform at his best on lower level events. No doubts that Stan has a great draw to reach the final stages of this event, but it’s never easy to back him outside Grand Slams or Masters. Adding to this, the conditions in Dubai are usually windy and Wawrinka can be very erratic on such conditions. Stan’s tennis odds for the title are currently at 6.50 on bet365 and is hard to find value on them. With this in mind, we suggest to avoid betting on Wawrinka at this event.

There is something about this event that makes Tomas Berdych produce his best tennis, with the Czech reaching two finals and losing only against Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Andy Murray in the last five appearances. It should be an easy start of competition for Tomas, with the Czech facing João Sousa and Leonardo Mayer; however, at the quarterfinals we expect a tough match against Nick Kyrgios. The Australian won his first career title in Marseille, producing an outstanding level of tennis and defeating Berdych at the semifinals in straight sets. It won’t be easy for Nick to keep the same level, especially because he’ll change from Indoor to Outdoor Hard Court, but after the way he dismissed Tomas it’s hard to find value on Berdych at 9.00 on bet365.

 

Player to keep an eye on
It has been a remarkable start of season for Roberto Bautista Agut, with the Spaniard winning two titles so far. Agut is a tremendous baseline player, with his consistency and forehand as his main weapons. This will be Roberto’s fourth career appearance on this event and he’ll be looking to go a step further this year, after losing always at the second round – twice against Djokovic and last year against Gasquet. Roberto starts his campaign against Simone Bolelli and in the second round, he might face another Italian player, Andreas Seppi. At the quarterfinals, Agut can face Viktor Troicki, in a reedition of this year’s ATP Sofia final, where the Spaniard emerged victorious in straight sets. Agut’s chances of reaching the semifinals are very good, where his run should end against Djokovic. With this in mind, we suggest adding the Spaniard in the first three matches to your tennis picks and avoid betting on him in a possible semifinals clash against the world no.1.