Tennis Betting: Analyzing Roger Federer & Stan Wawrinka's Performance

João Mourato

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 8:14 PM GMT

We'll continue our tennis betting player's profile analysis. This time we'll analyze the two best Suisse players on tour: Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka.

Roger Federer
It’s absolutely brilliant how Roger Federer keeps performing at a high level at 34 years old. Roger is considered by many the greatest player of all time, with a tremendous versatility on his game.

After struggling with back problems in 2013, Federer returned to his best tennis with remarkable results in 2014 and 2015. Despite maintaining a great level of tennis, is clear that Federer struggles to perform at a consistent level on Grand Slam events. Let’s take a closer look on Roger’s numbers, using Pinnacle closing betting odds.

As we can see, Roger’s results are quite solid on ATP and Masters – matches played at best of 3 sets – while his numbers on Grand Slams are much worse. It’s also important to mention Federer’s brilliant numbers on ATP 250 & 500. The main reasons for Roger’s success on this events are: 1) Federer usually receives a large fee appearance amount, for that reason he looks to perform at his best in order to receive future invitations to other events. 2) The Suisse does a great calendar management, playing only when he’s feeling at 100%, while on Masters he’s forced to play by ATP rules and might not always be at his best.

We can also verify that management by comparing Roger’s ROI since 2009 on two Master events.

The game conditions in Cincinnati are quite fast and that’s one of the reasons why Federer loves to play there. On the other hand, the Paris Masters is far from a good tournament for the Suisse. The French Indoor Masters event is played right after Basel, where Roger usually plays the whole week and the former world no.1 likes to have more time to prepare the ATP World Tour Finals.


Stan Wawrinka
There were no doubts about Stan Wawrinka’s talent and tremendous quality, but the Suisse was only able to reach his full potential at a later age. The year of 2013 was a turning point for Stan, with outstanding performances and playing his best tennis on bigger stages.

Wawrinka is one of the greatest ball strikers of all time and he’s able to overplay anyone on tour with his massive groundstrokes. Since 2013, the Suisse has been a very solid investment, but once again let’s analyze more carefully his numbers.

There are few doubts that Wawrinka is by far a better investment on Grand Slams events. As we mentioned, the Suisse performs at his best on bigger tournaments and the numbers support that. On 2015 Stan’s numbers on ATP 500 were quite better, but is important to mention that Wawrinka lost all three matches he played in ATP 500 Basel since 2013. In fact, Stan numbers on Suisse soil have been terrible with -36.7% career ROI. We advise to add Wawrinka to your betting picks on Grand Slams and avoid playing him on lower level tournaments.