Take the Value on a Late Round Stop in Mayweather-McGregor

the Fight of the century is here - Mayweather-McGregor

Andreas Hale

Thursday, August 24, 2017 1:36 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 24, 2017 1:36 PM UTC

Well, it’s here. It’s finally here. The fight we never thought would happen is just days away and the betting lines are all that anyone is talking about. 

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Conor McGregor — despite having never laced up a pair of boxing gloves professionally — is not as much of an underdog as most would assume he’d be. As a matter of fact, the lines have been consistently trending down since the day the fight was announced. 

Is The Line Right?

You can currently find McGregor as low as a +300 (Bovada) and as high as a +440 (5Dimes), which is a line that sounds far more enticing than it is. As for Mayweather, he’s currently between -400 (Bovada) and as high as -550 (BookMaker). Consider this, McGregor is less of an underdog than Andre Berto (-3000), Marcos Maidana (-900 & -600), Robert Guerrero (-600) and Miguel Cotto (-700). All of these fighters were world champions in boxing, but McGregor hasn’t had a professional fight, much less a world title.

But it’s McGregor’s magical ability to make people believe that has moved the line. While it suggests that McGregor has a chance, the reality is that he really doesn’t. Although McGregor has called his shot in multiple UFC fights, this is a totally different world. 

That being said, there’s no reason you should bet on McGregor. The line is simply not worth it as McGregor will have a plethora of problems to deal with on fight night. Most importantly, while he’s learning boxing concepts, Mayweather will be sharpening up his elite skill set. There is simply no way you can justify betting on McGregor at anything less than a +600 on the boxing odds boards. It simply doesn’t make sense. 

If you have the money to spare, you can throw it all at Mayweather. However, you’re going to have to move quickly before the whales come in and push the line up. But the value of Mayweather at anywhere from -400 to -550 is a value. The age doesn’t matter, Mayweather is as sharp as they come. 

If you’re looking to make some money, it would be wise to look at a stoppage by Mayweather in the middle to late rounds. He’s a notoriously slow starter who spends the first couple of rounds figuring out what his opponent can and cannot do. Once that’s figured out, Mayweather will work on dissecting his opponent and putting him in uncomfortable positions. Although Mayweather is not known as a knockout artist — his last knockout was in 2011 — he certainly has a sting to his punches with exceptional accuracy. More importantly, Mayweather takes what you give him as a master counterpuncher and uses it against you. McGregor doesn’t necessarily have an off switch and will continue to come at Mayweather regardless of how his body feels. 

Keep in mind that McGregor has never been known as a defensive minded MMA fighter and the nuances of defense in boxing cannot be overstated. Will he be able to get away from the straight right hand and deal with the hooks to the body? Not likely. That, coupled with McGregor’s conditioning, which has been in question in MMA and now he’s in a fight that’s 11 minutes longer, could spell a late demise.

Right now, you can find the fight going under 9.5 rounds at around -190 over at 5Dimes, which is worth it a shot. But expect Mayweather to apply the sweet science in ways that McGregor cannot comprehend. Furthermore, without McGregor being fundamentally sound defensively, there is a likelihood that he’ll be broken down and picked apart. 

See what you can find with prop bets that aim directly at a stoppage in rounds 6-9 by Mayweather. This is going to be the easiest money you can make this weekend. 

Mayweather Wins in Rounds 5 through 8 is (+300)

You can find Mayweather Wins in Rounds 7 through 9 (+465) at 5Dimes

Mayweather Wins in Rounds 7 Through 12 is (+249)

Expect a late round stoppage due to punishment and bet what you can on Mayweather. It’s worth it. 

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