It is not often we nod our head in respect to the bookmakers for getting a price (almost) right. But fair play to the layers who have chalked up Glamorgan shorter than the +600 (Sportingbet, Unibet, 888Sport, Boylesports).
Honestly, it is one of the very rare occasions in cricket when a team is rated not for the size of their bank balance, membership, wage bill, stadium or glorious history book weighed with tales of daring do, but the here and now.
Glamorgan have been, as we predicted in our team-by-team guide on these very pages at the start of the Blast (not a particularly apt name for a competition which will go into a third month in September) fantastic competitors.
They never lost two on the bounce in the group section and would have qualified with significantly more ease had four matches not been washed out because of poor weather. Yet still they topped the table, winning seven from ten. It is a mighty fine record.
And they are within touching distance of booking a spot in Finals Day if they get past an aggressive Leicestershire at home on Wednesday.
But guess what, folks? We’re going to take them on. The value on the Welsh County has long gone and instead it is Leicestershire who get our ticker racing. Fickle aren’t we?
Is that because they fit the DNA for a value bet in the county game? Underrated players? A small-time reputation? Humble stadium? Poor support? Yes to all of those. Leicestershire have gone under the radar and we think they are a better outright wager than Glamorgan at +1000 with a raft of bookies including William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, and Betway.
In short, Leicestershire have been priced in the same way Glamorgan were at the start of affairs. They are unfashionable and unfancied. But let’s look at their record.
They won their first four matches all away from home. This proves they have cool heads under fire in unfamiliar surrounds. And no doubt an ability to execute well-formed plans.
It is true they suffered a wobble, losing six straight. But it is also true they lost their skipper, Clint McKay, to injury. He is fit and firing again and, hey presto, they won four on the bounce to qualify.
McKay is one of the best bowlers in world T20 and he has led a mean bowling attack. We are always a sucker for bowling team instead of a batting team in T20. It is what wins tournaments. For example, Glamorgan have actually struggled in the field.
But not Leicestershire, known as the Foxes. They appear to be able to do it all and with Mark Cosgrove, Luke Ronchi and Cameron Delport extremely dangerous with the bat they rank an outstanding wager for glory.