Swansea vs. Southampton Free Soccer Picks

Lee Phelps

Sunday, September 21, 2014 10:44 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 21, 2014 10:44 PM GMT

Before making your soccer pick for Saturday’s  Swansea vs.  Southampton Premier League match, understand that the soccer betting odds are favouring the home team 6/4. Find out what this capper thinks.

On Saturday night in the UK, it was funny to hear the same media who wrote Southampton off, climbing over each other to praise Saints after their win over a rudderless Newcastle United. Alan Pardew’s men are arguably the worst side in the Premier League at the moment. That’s not to say Ronald Koeman’s men didn’t deserve it, they could only beat what was in front of them of course.

 

Koeman Coming Good?
When Saints lost their better players during the transfer window, people were predicting relegation for the overachievers of last season, but they seemed to forget a club is built on values not just players. It’s also a self-writing story, if you predict demise and it doesn’t happen, you can write about the remarkable turn round in fortunes. Neither are true. The Dutchman has recruited well and still has several quality players who know the club inside out, the crowd remains the same and what if a new set of Lallanas, Lamberts and Lovrens are being moulded? Not many journalists were predicting bright things on their ascension from the Championship, so maybe this squad will be picked off by the big money clubs at the end of this season.

The man pulling the strings on the pitch is Morgan Schneiderlin, he’s had the most influence in each of the Saints’ four matches so far. Not only has he been the man most of the good work has gone through, he has already scored three goals in four matches, beating his tally for the whole of last season. In fact his best ever league season was in 2012/13 when he got five. Swansea are the kind of side I think the France international will find space against, as he did when bagging two at Upton Park. In the form he is in, 7/1 (8.0) for him to score anytime in the match is too big a price to miss.

 

Full Shift
Swansea went up against the only other side with a 100% record in the top flight and came unstuck against the Premier League favourites. I liked a Chelsea win to nil, but John Terry’s own goal killed that bet. When Chelsea go a goal down, as they have a couple of times, it’s worth investing on them in-play, especially if the goal comes in the first half.

One blow for the Swans, is that defender Jordi Amat has been ruled out for six weeks after suffering a strained lateral ligament at Stamford Bridge. The other blow is they don’t seem to be able to put in a 90 minutes performance every week. I thought their inability to keep Burnley at bay would cost them, but they played very well in the following game against West Brom. They played well for about 25 minutes against Jose Mourinho’s men.

Interestingly Angel Rangel has also said the same to walesonline.co.uk:

“We were great for the first 25 minutes. We were very bright and started on the front foot. We created many chances, and that is the way we intend to start games. We were very good in possession and comfortable in the first half but in the second half we were far too sloppy. That's what created problems for us in what was a very bad second half.

“We have to improve on certain areas and that’s what we will be working hard on in time for next week’s game against Southampton.”

 

Soccer Picks
The soccer odds for this match have Swansea as the favourites at 6/4, Southampton at 85/40 and the draw 12/5. The head-to-heads are in the South coast side’s favour. They did the double over the South Wales’ team last season, haven’t lost to them in five and the Swans haven’t scored a goal against the Saints in 287 minutes of football. It’s a low-scoring matchup overall, with just five goals in four Premier League meetings between the two.

For my free pick, I’m happy to go that way again, going under 2.5 at 5/6. I’m going for the draw here, because both are in good form, both are fairly open too. For the more intrepid sports bettors, take Swansea to win the first half (as per Rangel’s comments) and Southampton to win the second half at 17/2.

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