Swansea vs. Liverpool Soccer Picks: EPL Props & Predictions

Nikki Adams

Sunday, March 15, 2015 5:03 PM GMT

Sunday, Mar. 15, 2015 5:03 PM GMT

Monday night's encounter between Swansea City and Liverpool promises to dazzle soccer bettors. More importantly, can the Swans spring a surprise on Liverpool? Join us as we preview this top flight game.

Swansea City Home Underdogs
Swansea City enter round 29 of Premier League betting as the home underdogs, matched at +300 Premiere League soccer odds to win outright and with, even, the draw trading closely at +260.

The Swans are sat pretty in the top half of the table in ninth spot with an 11-7-10 mark and 40 points. They go into round 29 two points behind Stoke City and a point ahead of West Ham United and after both sides lost their respective round of 29 battles (Stoke lost 1-0 to West Brom and West Ham lost 3-0 to Arsenal) that remains unchanged. The Swans are assured at the very least to hold on to ninth place if they lose to the Reds, which is a measure of consolation, if not rewarding.

Needless to say, a win over Liverpool would see them leapfrog Stoke while a draw would close the gap on eight place to a point. Swans fans and those backing them with soccer picks have reason to expect either of those results. Their side has played well at Liberty Stadium this season and lost only three games (7-4-3). Predictably, top opponents took all three points in Swansea, the likes of Chelsea (5-0), Tottenham (2-1) and Southampton (1-0), but two of those three were wins by narrow margins.

On the bright side, the Swans defeated Arsenal 2-1 in Swansea. As well, they were able to take the reverse in Southampton, winning 1-0 in February. Earlier this season, the beat Manchester United 2-1 at the Old Trafford, no less. Most recently, they played valiantly at White Hart Lane, only to come up short in a 3-2 loss.

Recent home form marks one defeat in five games, the lopsided loss to Chelsea. They beat Aston Villa 1-0 and Manchester United (again) 2-1 while settled on draws with West Ham United (1-1) and Sunderland (1-1).

 

Liverpool Not So Firm Faves
Bookies send Liverpool into this game as the favourites, albeit on Even Money at +100 soccer odds. Given the Swans are such hefty underdogs on the soccer odds board, it's interesting that a Liverpool win isn't trading on a slightly higher price. There are those that would call this a trap soccer pick.

In fact, one gets a further sense of that when looking at double chance betting markets as a Swansea win or draw is trading on favourable -120 soccer odds while a Liverpool win or draw is trading as high as -400 soccer odds and hedging your bets with Swansea or Liverpool to win is matched at -375 soccer odds.

On the whole, Liverpool's form on the road has been a bit of a hit and miss this season. While they won seven of their 13 league away games, they also lost five and settled on the draw just once (7-1-5). There is a perceptible upsurge on their travels in recent weeks with a run of five games undefeated, all of which are clean sheets to boot. However, save for a 2-0 win over Southampton, those are almost exclusively wins over the league's lightweights and stragglers (Burnley, Sunderland, Aston Villa and Everton).

Of the five losses on the road, two were to the  Manchester tandem (3-0 at the Old Trafford and 3-1 at the Etihad) while some were inexplicable losses to West Ham United, Newcastle United and Crystal Palace.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict:
The soccer betting markets serve up a rather lopsided soccer betting line for this game, with Swansea City seriously underrated at home all while Liverpool are coyly set to Even Money. Indeed, recent form (five games undefeated) suggests Liverpool is a value soccer pick at +100 to win in Swansea, but as mentioned above it's important not to overstate that form. At times, the Reds flounder on their travels, particularly to adventurous sides that can pick apart their suspect defence.

The Swans are extremely adventurous and they are great on the counter attack. They have the measure of some good clubs in England's top flight, so they'll fancy their chances against a Liverpool side that sometimes fails to show up.

By the soccer odds, we can't help but lean towards Swansea City for the signature result on our soccer picks, either winning at +300 or settling on the draw at +260. Either way, both soccer bets offer angles for profit.

For neutral bettors, the Over 2.5 is on offers of +100. Ultimately, that may be the safest bet between two sides that are sure to play fluid, fast-paced football on the pitch and deliver lots of goals as a result.

Recommended Soccer Picks: Over 2.5 +100

Additional Soccer Picks: Swansea City to win at +300  from Bet365 or draw at +260

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":299857, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here