Swansea to Upset Crystal Palace Among Premier League Best Picks

Stuart Woodrow

Wednesday, December 20, 2017 8:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017 8:59 PM UTC

Let's take a tour around the Premier League matches this holiday weekend and recommend which ones punters should consider and which to pass on by. 

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The biggest game of the Premier League weekend is over before the traditional Saturday 3 p.m. kickoff this week. Arsenal take on Liverpool in a game that could be won by either side and probably has the sportsbooks rubbing their hands together right now. Liverpool have a poor record away against the top six (to be fair, so do plenty of other teams), but Arsenal are unpredictable and could easily lose this game with just one bad night. Nothing in this one for me, but I’ll probably tune in to watch.

Everton v Chelsea is the first game on Saturday, and I see a lot of people talking about backing Everton. I won’t be following that trend as I think Big Sam has excelled recently by organizing Everton into a decent outfit once again, but Antonio Conte will have his Chelsea side even better drilled. There’s no value in a Chelsea win so I’m out.

I avoided Watford last week and I’m doing the same again this week. Brighton have looked a relatively solid side, but they have weaknesses and I feel that Watford may win this one in the air. I’m not sold on it though so I’m holding my money back for something better.

Manchester City are going to be this season’s champions. I tipped them at the start of the season, and I’m still on that bandwagon. You can see the measure of their success when you can only get -123 for Manchester City -2.5 goals in the Asian Handicap market vs. Bournemouth. There’s no value there but it probably will pay off.

I’m not a big fan of betting on the newly-promoted sides, or betting against them, and that general rue has served me quite well. It’s worked out for me this season because I would instinctively have bet against Huddersfield on a number of occasions and I would have lost money. Southampton have been poor this season, so I don’t know how the bookies can justify odds of -164 for a home win. I prefer X2 in the Double Chance market at around +133.

It’s a case of “can’t score, won’t score” in the game between Stoke and West Brom. Tony Pulis may not have been doing a fantastic job at West Brom, but Alan Pardew hasn’t pulled up any trees since taking over. It’s a poor appointment, and if Pulis takes the Swansea job it may be one they go on to regret. No bet from me.

Now we do get into the bets. My first one is in the Swansea v Crystal Palace game. I’m backing the home side, and I feel even better about this one now that Swansea have sacked Paul Clement. You can get +203 right now with JustBet and this Swansea side has something to prove. Palace have done much better recently, but they are beatable and the value for the Swansea win is enough to get me involved.

West Ham have a pretty poor record against Newcastle, and I think the away side are going to go out and win this one. If that rumored takeover comes to fruition then I think our chances of winning this one improve further. Take the +280 that BetVictor have for us.

Burnley welcome Tottenham this weekend, and I think "both teams to score" is the way to go in this one. William Hill are offering +120, and I like that. Burnley’s defence will be weakened by the loss of 2 of their major players, and Spurs will be boosted by the return of Davinson Sanchez. Even as a Spurs fan I can recognize there’s no value in playing the match odds market in this one.

Leicester v Manchester United finishes off the weekend games (Boxing Day matches coming shortly afterwards, though) and once again I’m going to have to disappoint you by having nothing in the last game. This really should be a good tactical battle though, one for the purists maybe.

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