Jordan’s WNBA Picks 29-31-1
Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty
The Sun have shown the ability to play some defense, but on the road for some reason they can’t seem to get stops as easily as they can at home.
This is true for most teams, but with the Sun and a few others, it’s profound enough of a trend to potentially make some money off them in their Sunday matinee against the Liberty.
The Liberty’s defense has been bad for most of the season. They play at a pretty fast pace too, which, combined with the Sun’s poor road defense is an opening to make some profit off this game.
The first half line is where I’m looking at for Sunday afternoon. So far over nine road games this season, the Sun have allowed 102.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks them ninth in the W. They are also playing at the league’s fourth-fastest pace on the road in the first half.
The Liberty on the other side have allowed 101.2 points per 100 possessions in the first half, but they are vastly better at home on defense in the first half, with their first half home defensive rating dropping to 92.5. However, they also play at a pace of nearly 100 in the first halves of their home games, so that should help the scoring here.
The matinee should affect defense some as well. These earlier WNBA games tend to be higher scoring this season and I think this is a perfect opportunity to expect that again here on Sunday.
In their first meeting, the Liberty dropped 39 first half points on the road in Connecticut and I think they can get 40-plus on the Sun here at home in the first half.
My Pick: OVER 1H
Recommended Sportsbook: Bookmaker
Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury
The Mystics have been dominating the rest of the league lately and it’s a combination of unstoppable offense, depth, and solid starts to their games. Now against the Mercury on Sunday afternoon, could Washington beat up on the banged up Mercury.
While Brittany Griner is listed as probable, the Mercury are dealing with a ton of injuries right now that will really affect this game.
Three starters are out for the Mercury in this game and while they still have Griner and DeWanna Bonner, it won’t be enough to beat a team that has six or seven players that can score double figures.
It’s also a great game to bet on the Mystics in the first quarter. Washington has been dominating ATS and in first quarter metrics lately, while the Mercury have been underperforming early in games.
Washington is averaging 121.2 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter this season, and allowing only 95.2. The Mercury on the other hand have allowed 98 points per 100 possessions and scoring just 93 per 100 possessions over their last five first quarters.
Considering the Mystics have already covered the first quarter spread twice against the Mercury this season, I’m going for the hat trick here. The Mercury are very banged up, so while they are still dangerous, they don’t have enough defense to slow down the Mystics early or later in this one.
My Pick: Mystics 1Q ATS
Recommended Sportsbook: 5Dimes