Jordan’s WNBA Picks: 18-17-1
Chicago Sky at Dallas Wings
Sunday, 4:00 PM
Free WNBA Pick: Over 1H
Recommended Sportsbook: Bookmaker
Even though Dallas is one of the slowest paced team in the league, their first half splits show there might be some room to bet the over in the first half of this one.
Dallas’ last three home games have been pretty poor defensively, especially in the first halves. Dallas is allowing 104.3 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their last three home games, so while they aren’t playing at too fast a pace, Chicago could end up taking care of that for them.
Chicago’s road defensive rating in the first half this season is 113.9, which is easily the worst mark in the league. However, while their road first half defense is one of the worst in the WNBA, their first half offense has been very good this season on the road, averaging 101.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s good for second in the league.
With the Sky playing at a pace of 99 possessions per game overall in the first half, there is room to bet the over here. Dallas is allowing over 40 points per first half in their last three home games. In their last five games overall, they have allowed an average of 43 first half points, including allowing 41 points to the Sky just a few games ago in Chicago.
The Sky and their opponents are averaging 86.2 points per first half in their last five games, so add the over before the odds lengthen more before game time.
Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
Sunday, 7:00 PM
Free WNBA Pick: Under 1H
Recommended Sportsbook: Pinnacle
With the return of Diana Taurasi, the Mercury are a whole new team heading into the All Star Break in a couple of weeks. Taurasi and the Mercury fell to the Sun in her return to the court and offense was not pretty.
The Mercury will need some time to re-establish Taurasi in the offense and I’m sure she won’t be ready to play starters minutes for a few more games now, maybe not even until after the break.
However, that could make the under a fine first half wager in this one. If the Mercury struggle on offense early again, the total right now is way too high for how low a scoring this first half could be.
For starters, both play pretty slow first half paces, while they also both hold two of the top three first half defenses in the WNBA.
Furthermore, over their last five games, both teams have allowed 89 points per 100 possessions or less in the first halves of their games.
Considering both teams play ultra-slow paces in their respective home-road positions, the under looks like affine first half wager. It’s probably my favorite play of the day.