WNBA Picks of The Day: Take Phoenix Mercury & Chicago Sky


Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury

Sunday, July 07, 2019 – 06:00 PM EDT

The Mercury are starting to get their feet under them. Despite the front office and training staff playing it very safe with holding out Diana Taurasi for an extended period, the Mercury are starting to play better as of late.

However, that stopped on Friday with a home loss to the Liberty. Phoenix couldn’t slow down Tina Charles and Kia Nurse and DeWanna Bonner had what was probably her worst game of the season.

They’ve had a day to stew on that and now they welcome in a team that is very beatable, especially early. Even though the Dream present some interesting problems for the Phoenix defense, I see the Mercury being the better play early in this game. Coming off the loss should help, but taking a look at both team’s analytics, the Mercury are a good first quarter play regardless of narrative.

Phoenix is averaging 103.6 points per 100 possessions in the first quarters of all their games, which is fourth-best in the league. At home that jumps to 107.5.

The Dream on the other hand ranks dead-last with an 83.3 offensive rating in the first quarter of their games this season. That will play in their game today.

  • My Pick: Mercury 1Q ATS
  • Recommended Sportsbook: Bovada

Dallas Wings at Chicago Sky

Sunday, July 07, 2019 – 06:00 PM EDT

The Dallas Wings have been playing better as of late, but their home-road splits are very glaring. Now they have a chance to correct that in a winnable matchup on the road in Chicago, but the issue for the Wings is, how do they slow down this lightning quick Sky offense?

The Sky have been giving up a ton of points this season, but that may not matter against an opponent like the Wings. Dallas is averaging just 92.5 points per 100 possessions this season, which ranks ninth in the W.

However, when they travel on the road, things start to fall apart. Dallas’ offensive rating (ORtg) drops to 87.2, which is the worst mark in the league.

It’s also tough for them to score in the first halves of their games. The Wings are averaging just 85 points per 100 possessions.

Chicago on the other hand is a very potent offense when they are playing at home, and that’s especially true in the first half. Chicago is averaging 103.2 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of all their games this season and that jumps over 105 at home.

While their defense has been a big issue, it hasn’t been as bad at home. Chicago’s defensive rating in the first half on the road is 113.9, compared to 97.2 at home.

With that in mind, I think Chicago is the play. They are currently on a four-game losing streak after a really tough stretch of games against four of the toughest teams in the league. This is a get right game for Chicago and I think they are ready for it. They have had four full days off since their loss in Vegas, opposed to Dallas, who has had just one day since losing at home to the Fever. I think that plays early in this one.

  • My Pick: Sky 1H ATS
  • Recommended Sportsbook: Bovada