Sunday's Premier League Soccer Pick: Liverpool vs. Manchester City

Lee Phelps

Friday, February 27, 2015 3:10 PM GMT

Liverpool & Man City will be happy to be back in the Premier League after their European week. William Hill's Lee Phelps has assessed the betting and the stats to find a free pick at decent odds.

It’s been a bad week for these two sides who get back to Premier League business on Sunday. Manchester City once again found the step up to the Europe elite competition one two far losing 2-1 and being rather lucky to get away with that. Liverpool of course found themselves in the second tier of European competition and not only had to go out to Turkey, but also extra-time and penalties, which they lost.

Both sides have got everything to play for and lots of points to collect between now and May. City must win every game and hope Chelsea drop six points to win the title, while the Reds are aiming for another Champions League spot and are now two points off fourth spot.

 

Liverpool
It’s one defeat in 24 matches for Brendan Rodgers’ team (they did lose in extra time to Chelsea) and despite their indifferent early season form, it’s still only two losses at Anfield all season. One to Jose Mourinho’s men and a shock defeat to Aston Villa back in September.

Goals have started to flow at home too, with 13 in their last five as the players have grown in confidence and Rodgers’ much talked about system finally takes hold with this incarnation of his Liverpool team.

They haven’t been as defensively tight on Merseyside (apart from the Everton game) as they have been away, with seven conceded in those last five. Put those goals with City’s scoring prowess, the fact they are top of the ‘away shots on target’ table and the head-to-head record showing over 2.5 goals landing in eight of the last nine Premier League encounters, I’m happy to play that again at 1.8 (4/5).

Keep checking SBR's soccer odds to get the best possible value for all this weekend action.

Manchester City
Manuel Pellegrini’s side showed their naivety once again against Barcelona this week, allowing their superstars too much space and then failing to keep their discipline with yet another red card. That game is gone, but I’m interesting how City come back to the domestic action following a midweek match.

Since the start of 2011 until the start of this season, they had played 19 times on their return from a Champions League match winning 12 of them, drawing four and losing three (to Chelsea twice and Manchester United). This season that record shows three wins, two draws (at Chelsea and QPR) and a loss to West Ham.

One thing I have noticed this season is their struggle to get going in games, the same problem that beset them against Barca on Tuesday. On their return from Europe this term, they have scored 11 goals in six games, with nine of them coming after half time. You can get 2.9 (19/10) for the second half to be the half of City’s first goal.

 

Soccer picks
I like both of those soccer picks, but my favourite bet is for Manchester City to have most booking points in the match. This bet would have landed in 10 of their 13 away Premier League games, while Liverpool have had most in only four of their home matches, with three of those during the early part of the season when they were struggling.

I’ve explained this before, but City break up play in midfield, regain position and eventually accumulate enough small fouls to turn them into bookings. They are the second worst disciplined team in the division.

Free Soccer Pick: Manchester City to have most bookings

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