Strong Betting Trends Suggest Grabbing 'Over' in Chelsea vs. Aston Villa EPL Matchup

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 12, 2015 2:25 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015 2:25 PM UTC

Let’s look at some angles and numbers and try to make a soccer pick or two with thoughts that the Blues have no recourse but to wake up now and are at Home where they have always been very solid.


Odds Overview
Chelsea vs. Aston Villa [Saturday 15:00] (USA Network, NBC Sports Live Extra, NBC UNIVERSO (US); TSN4 (CAN); SKY México (CRI, DOM, SLV); 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT): Defending English Premier League champions and 16th-place Chelsea (2-2-4, 12 GF-17 GA) welcome 18th-place Aston Villa (1-1-6, 8 GF-13 GA) to Stamford Bridge on Saturday for this Matchday 9 English Premier League fixture from West London between two teams dealing with the Relegation Zone and Fear much earlier than they both had anticipated. Oddsmakers here have made Chelsea -300 favorites on the soccer odds here over Aston Villa (+700) with the Draw priced at +475 (bet365); the Total Goals in this contest set at 2½ with the Over at -142 and Under priced at +110 (bet365). Some Props wagers for this EPL match from Londontown: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ +110, ‘No’ -150 (bet365); and, To Win To Nil: Chelsea +125, Aston Villa +1400 (Sky Bet). And a couple from the Asian Handicap marketplace: Chelsea -0.75 -250, Chelsea -1 -200 (bet365).


Aston Villa FC
Aston Villa (1-0-3, 6 GF 8 GA on Road) has had trouble putting the old sheep’s bladder across the goal line this season, and the Villains are tied with Watford and West Bromwich Albion for having scored the least goals in the league at this point (6). In its last game in Premier League play (Oct. 3), Aston Villa lost 1-0 at Home at Villa Park to Stoke City as the Potters Marko Arnautovic scored the game’s only goal and Villa Manager Tim Sherwood continued to hope for better results. The Claret and Blue have a fun kid to watch in 19-year-old Spanish Right Winger Adama Traoré (+180 Anytime Goalscorer, 888sport), and along with Rudy Gestede (3 goals, +400, 888sport), Gabriel Agbonlahor (+430, 888sport), Scott Sinclair (2 goals), Carles Gil (1 goal), Jack Grealish (1 goal), Ashley Westwood, Micah Richards, Jordan Amavi (2 Assists), striker Libor Kozák (+430, 888sport), Idrissa Gana Gueye, Jordan Ayew, Joleon Lescott and José Ángel Crespo, Sherwood has more than enough in the cupboard. But after teetering with Relegation before, having Sherwood save the day last season in Paul Lambert’s stead, now the new Aston Villa manager Sherwood may start feeling the heat. And here against an angry Chelsea team at Stamford Bridge, expect Villa GK Brad Guzan to really be tested as desperation has sunk in with this 16th-place Blues side and they will be firing at will.


Chelsea FC
Chelsea (1-1-2 Home, 6 GF-7 GA) went unbeaten at Home here at Stamford Bridge last season but that was then and this is now and this Roster the Blues currently have could present real problems all season-long, with some aging players like 31-year-old D Branislav Ivanovic—who has regularly been beaten on the flanks so far this season, losing more than a step in the Offseason—and 28-year-old MF Cesc Fàbregas who often plays like he’s 38 and makes the Defensive pairing with Nemanja Matic now seem more like a weakness in the Midfield. And there have been some other royal blue duds that will leave fans disappointed. Losing club legends Didier Drogba (MLS, Montreal Impact)—who scored his 9th goal in 9 games on Saturday—Frank Lampard (MLS, NYCFC) and Cech (Arsenal) and missing talented club Physio Eva Carneiro—for the wrongest of all reasons—has left this tired team hollow and some doubting the moves of its ego-driven Manager, José Mourinho. The Blues have failed to get into any kind of decent flow on Offense also, with playmaker Eden Hazard (+116 Anytime Goalscorer, 888sport) and prolific scorer Diego Costa (1 goal; -122, 888sport) both in Grade A funks. New-signee Pedro (Barcelona, 1 goal), Kurt Zouma, César Azpilicueta, Oscar, Matic and loanee Radamel Falcao (AS Monaco, +116, 888sport) are Chelsea’s other goal scorers, and Brazilian Willian (2 goals) is the only Blues player with multiple goals as we head into Matchday 9. And that wouldn’t be so bad if the Chelsea Defense was playing up to its regular stellar form. Usual starting GK Thibaut Courtois is injured and backup Asmir Begovic has been pretty good, but the number of relatively easy scoring chances opponents have had exposing weaknesses (and slowness) in the Central Midfield and back four has been horrific to watch for Blues fans used to watching its club play lockdown Defense. This is a huge game for Chelsea, not only for the 3 points if it wins, but to get the team’s heads right and get some momentum going in the right direction. There are plenty of problems right now at SW6.


Series Trends and Best Betting Approaches
In this series in EPL play, 8 of the L9 games have gone Over the Total of 2½, with the only exception coming two seasons ago at Villa Park in a 1-0 Villains upset on Matchday 30. So, the Trend here strongly suggests backing the Over as your soccer pick, as does the heavier vigorish (-140, bet365) on the Over at 2½ in the market. And with a nervous and motivated Chelsea expected to force the pace early, this should be good for a quick pace and the Blues have been allowing opponents to score this season, seeing opponents score a gaudy 17 times in the first 8 EPL matches. Very un-Chelsea-like. Overall in this series in Premier League play, Chelsea is 53-32-51 (208 GF-202 GA), those number reflecting times when the Blues weren’t so good and when Aston Villa was one of the better sides in the Premier League. Here at Stamford Bridge in West London, the Blues are 36-13-19 (117 GF-81 GA) and Chelsea have Won the L3 meetings here with the Claret and Blue, outscoring them 13-1 in the process (3-0, 2-1, 8-0) and the defending champs—who may best be used as a parlay (accumulator) element at this price (-300)—have beaten Aston Villa in 6 of the L7 overall in EPL play.
Here, expect guys like Costa and Hazard to play much better and for Ramires to maybe get the start, and there is a chance Mourinho may actually start some of the “kids” in the Blues organization like Brazilian Kenedy, CMF Ruben Loftus-Cheek and D Baba Rahman. We shall see. Something has to give with this team and quickly. And it seems Pedro (+190 Anytime Goalscorer, 888sport) would be a good Prop bet scorer here on Saturday as he seems to get in better scoring position than Costa and Hazard this season and his Anytime Goalscorer price is much fairer compared to both of theirs.

Predicted Final Score: Chelsea 2 Aston Villa 1

Premier League Soocer Picks: Over 2½ -142  & Pedro, Anytime Goalscorer +190  at Bet365

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