With games taking place Wednesday and Thursday, it’s not particularly easy to look ahead to a weekend of fixtures and make predictions ahead of time. But let's take a shot.
First up is a game Sunday with Stoke facing the surprise team of the season Burnley. The visitors have been punching way above their weight this season and are better away from home than at Turf Moor. It’s somewhat surprising then to see the selection for this one come out as a home win. This will be based on results in previous seasons and that’s what the value is based on for this one.
It is clearly a risk. though. Statistically, Burnley has the edge in attack and defense along with a significant advantage when it comes to converting shots to goals.
I’m going with the value, though, as upsets have happened throughout the season and at some point Stoke has to start beating sides if they think there is going to be any hope of them staying up. That hope is dwindling quickly though.
Everton vs. Newcastle
My other selection is also on a home side and it’s on the Everton-Newcastle game Monday. Everton sits higher on the table and Newcastle is high on confidence after they’ve pretty much guaranteed themselves another season in the Premier League.
Statistically, Everton edges things here but it’s fairly tight. Everton is ahead on goals scored, a lower number of goals conceded home vs. away and also on both current form and form over the course of the season.
I think if Newcastle was at home I would probably be going to the other side of the bet. But with Everton at home and +138 available at William Hill on the soccer odds board, the bet is for Everton to come through this one with three points.
Neither bets are “easy calls” this weekend and as always you need to be very careful with your stakes. The midweek fixtures and FA Cup Semifinals have certainly made things tougher this week, but just one winner will see us come out of this with a profit.