Stats World Cup Bettors Can't Ignore Heading Into Knockout Round

Nila Amerova

Friday, June 27, 2014 6:00 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 27, 2014 6:00 PM UTC

In order to ensure a profitable round of World Cup betting during the knockouts, here are some intriguing stats that might help you decide which World Cup picks to spot.

Now that the group stage has been put to bed, and we’ve gone through 48 of 64 matches at the finals, some lovely statisticians have put together some interesting numbers for all aspects of the game. We thought some of these could be useful towards increasing your profits all the while enjoying all the World Cup betting thrills on hand.

Betting the Overs/Unders
With 48 matches yielding an average of 2.8 goals per match, it would seem betting the Over 2.5 is the way to go with your World Cup betting picks.

That said be careful to note which teams are known for their strong defences, as that would certainly swing the balance in favour of the Under 2.5 in some cases. After all, it would be surprising if all R16 matches ended up going Over 2.5.

Offensive teams to back towards pushing totals up
Netherlands and France have ignited the finals with their offense, the former boasting the most goals (10) and the latter with seven goals boasting the best attack (62 attempts, of which 13 were blocked, 19 saved and 23 off-target). Germany (8 goals) rank high in passing with 1792 passes. Controlling the ball with 425 short passes completed, 1214 medium passes completed and 153 long passes completed.

Defensive teams to back towards holding totals down
Greece have to rank amongst those that could keep the scores Under 2.5 in the R16, not necessarily because of their defence but rather their lack of offense. Make no mistake, Greece have built a reputation on stoic defending, but at these finals their backline has been flawed. Belgium were billed as a lethal offensive weapon on paper. Curiously, offense has been found wanting but defence has been solid. Belgium scored just four goals in three matches while conceding one, marking the lowest tally of the group stage and that is matched by Costa Rica only. Speaking of Los Ticos, they’re defence has taken them into the R16 by all accounts. Granted, they scored three against Uruguay in their opener, but they won Group D by defending well – in their remaining two games, they only scored one goal and conceded ZERO.  Belgium take on USA in a R16 clash that is perceptibly tipped towards the Under 2.5. Meanwhile, Costa Rica and Greece collide in the R16, with the Under 2.5 hotly favoured at -225.

 Outright betting
Ten World Cups have been won by a European nation while nine by a South American nation. Which continent will podium this time? Will it be an eleventh for Europe or a tenth for South America?  If odds were an indication, it would seem the latter is the top World Cup pick with the likeliest winner being hosts Brazil at +300 or established heavyweights Argentina at +400.

The best picks of the European litter have to be Germany (+400), Holland (+800) and France (+800), in that order as well. Both Netherlands and Germany emerged out of tough groups, which only points to their potent attack and their ability to take it to just about any side. France emerged out of a slightly easier group but that shouldn’t take anything away from them as they impressed significantly. The way the draws are set, all three could go deep with two reaching at least the semis, if not further.  Of the lot, Netherlands looks to have the path of least resistance in their section of the draw, which makes them a tempting choice at +100 to reach the semis, if not win it all at +800. Remember, they are the runners-up from South Africa. Germany and France could potentially collide in the quarters, with Germany fancied to go a step further at -138 and France matched at +175 to upset the odds. Germany have been long knocking on the door, and many believe this is their finals to win or lose, now.

World Cup Betting Verdict
So there you have it, some interesting stats, facts and titbits to help you along with your World Cup picks. OF course, this is only meant to be informative. Matches aren’t won on paper but on the pitch. Predicting the winner is not an exact science. So have fun. May the best team win.

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