Sports Bettting is Not a Playground For Your Whims

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, August 6, 2015 8:12 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 6, 2015 8:12 PM GMT

We explain why sports bettting is not a playground for your whims and look at ways you can avoid joining the 98% of sports bettors who are long-term losers!

In anticipation of the upcoming 2015 Football season, I have already authored numerous articles. By this point in time, you have hopefully reviewed my (8) part article entitled “Get Out of Your Head.” The purpose of the series was to prepare you mentally, emotionally and psychologically for your sports betting career in the upcoming months. Armed with that as a background, you were then given critical information about Game Selection Management, an in-depth article on how to manage your bankroll and finally, a realistic preview of how much money you will win with what you consider to be a very modest 57% winning percentage. Following that series of articles, I presented an overview of both CFB and NFL teams, isolating Underrated and Overrated teams in both the collegiate and professional ranks.

You will need every bit of this information, along with your ability to handicap statistically, situationally, and technically, if you are to be successful in the upcoming football season.  Whether you’re embarking on the 5-month voyage that is CFB and NFL sports betting, going through the 8-month grind that is football and basketball through the Final Four, or whether you are a year-round player, the one thing you must understand, as you wake up each morning is that Sports Bettting is Not a Playground For Your Whims. You are wagering Real Money. Yet, often times you treat it with the least respect of any of your financial outlays in a day. Part of the reason is that you are not asked to physically transfer money, when you make your wager. Funds are deposited in a sports betting account or you are betting on credit. Either way, without the physical transfer of funds, there is a lower regard for the financial risk.  

Yet each time you make a wager, you are going up against an experienced and knowledgeable opponent … the linemaker. He is well-versed in his knowledge of the public bettor and his habits. His power ratings are the best in the business and he is adept at often incorporating home/road dichotomies and situational tendencies into his betting line. As well, there are a number of tangible and intangible factors, working in his favor.  

 

Sports is a Game of Inches
Whether it’s a foul ball, a shot that bounces off the rim, or a field goal that is just wide right… it is often a matter of inches that decides which way millions of dollars will change hands.

 

Human Fraility
Humans make errors. Whether it is a referee or player, actions are often not the function of their intent. And you, as a sports bettor, are not always 100% on your game… mentally, emotionally and psychologically. More of this works against you than not. 

 

Random Variance
Football is a game in which the majority of the points are scored by margins of 3 or 6 points. A “pick 6” is a TO (proven to be largely of random variance) in which there is a 14 point swing, including extra points. Or take the sport of college basketball, which has the largest sample size of any of the sports, 250+ teams are each playing over 30 games. The average margin from the pointspread is approximately 8 points per game. In fact, with the onset of conference play in January, over 40% of the games fall within 5 points of the opening line. That is a missed 3 pointer, a long rebound, and the layup going the other way. It doesn’t take much to swing the point spread fortunes. 

 

All of the above is why over 98% of you are long-term losers at sports betting. You Think Sports Bettting is a Playground For Your Whims. After drinking more than you should last Sunday, you respond to seeing the Steelers win by 20 on the road because they forced 5 TOs, by thinking they will automatically cover as a big home favorite the next week. You see the Duke Blue Devils blowout an over-matched ACC foe at Cameron Indoor Stadium. You immediately knee-jerk to playing Duke as a conference road favorite at a tough site their next time out. Most of your next bets are simply a function of what you saw in a team’s previous game. Any advice you take is from ESPN or your friends in the office or bar. You have no concept of how to search for value in the betting line, or how to use a bankroll to minimize your losses and maximize your profit. No wonder you are sure to lose against an experienced team of linemakers who have spent their lives honing their skills and the betting line.  

Winning at sports betting is a full-time job!  Because that’s the way your opponent, the linemaker, goes about setting the line. If you are to win, you must develop a handicapping game plan and follow it religiously. You then must use sound Game Selection Management and follow a proven Money Management theory. If you do not do all of the above, you are simply making sports betting a Playground For Your Whims and will soon join the 98% of sports bettors who are long-term losers!

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