In this article I'll explain how good is a 57% winning percentage so that you can understand how to avoid letting your emotional response to winning and losing overwhelm you.
Claims of 70% winners abound in the sports service industry. Any experienced handicapper realizes these are unrealistic in the long run. The excellence and experience of a group of savvy linemakers ensures this does not happen. It is their full time job to rate the teams. They adjust for injuries, for public opinion, and on a game to game basis using final scores.
Finding the 'Soft Spots'
- Home-road dichotomies
- Coaching tendencies
- Scheduling dynamics
- Matchup advantages
- Current form
- Emotional Situations
Dealing with 'Random Variance'
- In-game injuries
- Coaching decisions
Only if I do a great job will we attain 57% winners in the long run. But, as you have learned you must not have expectations. Simply focus on every present moment of handicapping and allow it to happen. That’s how winning streaks evolve. It is how you attain your “zone.” You will need pencil and paper to see just how good 57% is.
Let’s follow your betting career, for the 7 months that are the heart of football and basketball seasons. That would be 7 months from September 1st through the college basketball Final Four in early April.
Flat betting of $100/game at a risk of 1.05/1.00
10 College Football picks/week for 14 weeks plus Bowl games
5 NFL picks/week for 17 weeks plus playoffs
25 NCAA Basketball picks/week for 20 weeks
15 NBA picks/week for 20 weeks
I will save you the math by telling you it comes out to about 1,000 plays. This may be more or less than your comfort level. That’s not the point. For the purpose of this exercise, assume 1,000 plays @ $100/game (You can personalize your own time frame, number of plays or wager size).
Now let’s assume the results are 57% winners.
You have put $105,000 into action
You won $57,000
You lost $45,150 (including the $2,150 in 5% juice)
Your net profit was $11,850
Your bottom line: You won some money (probably more than anywhere else you could have invested your funds), had some fun, and you learned how good is 57%!
None of this will occur, however, if you let your emotional response to winning and losing overwhelm you. That is why understanding this eight-part series is essential if you are to join the less than 5% of sports bettors who are lifetime winners.