Lewis Hamilton leads Verstappen 2-1 in race wins this season as he clinched the victory last time out from 2nd on the grid. Can Max Verstappen capitalize in Catalunya, or will Hamilton show us why he has won here four years in a row?
Formula 1 Spanish GP
Sunday, May 9th, 2021 – 10:00 AM EST at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya
Lewis Hamilton stormed to victory last time out in Portimao for us as he cashed the winning margin over 8 seconds at +200. It was an exciting race as expected and in the early stages it seemed Hamilton’s teammate, Valtteri Bottas might be able to mount a challenge for race victory but it soon became clear that Hamilton was quicker, and he soon took the lead of the race and didn’t look back until he crossed the finish line. This has marked the 3rd race in a row this season that Verstappen and Hamilton have both placed in the top 2. Lando Norris did well to secure 5th position and secure his 4th race in a row with a top 5 finish. Both Alpine-Renault drivers managed a top 10 finish for the second time this season in three races.
The bookmakers have finally realized that Hamilton could be the championship favorite and for the first time this season he has opened up as favorite for a race. Hamilton is best priced at +110 with the best online sportbooks, Verstappen is best priced at +150 at Intertops (Visit our Intertops Review).
Circuit Info and Characteristics
The Circuit De Catalunya track is one of the most famous in Europe and Spain. With long straights and a variety of corners, the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is seen as an all-rounder circuit and many other motorsport classes enjoy it such as MotoGP. The race is run over a distance of 66 laps, each lap is 2.892 miles long.
The track is renowned as a true test of a cars aerodynamic package with its mix of fast corners and slow corners as well as its very long straight. The preseason testing is often done at this track by each team. An interesting fact about this circuit is 20 of the 23 races held here were won by world champions.
Previous Spanish Race Winners
- 2020- Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2019- Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2018- Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2017- Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2016- Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Favorite Prop Pick
In the 23 races held at the Circuit de Catalunya since 1991, there have been 17 winners from pole position. Which means pole position is very important at this track. With a success rate of 73% from pole position we have to jump on the race winner to come from pole position. At odds of 1.72 the bookies are giving us implied odds of a 58% success rate, but history shows us we have actually have a 73% chance, that’s a massive value range of 15%.
We have also not had a winning driver from pole position this season, which is totally against the trend, so we have another reason to get on this bet as it is bound to happen sooner or later.
Free Formula1 Prop Pick: Grid Position of Race Winner: Pole at 1.72 with the Best Sportsbooks
Official Best Bet
Its clear that Hamilton is the boss around this track as he has won 4 of the previous 5. It also must be known that the one race he was beaten in by Verstappen in 2016, Verstappen didn’t technically beat Hamilton as he was knocked out of the race on the first lap. Theirs a very strong chance Hamilton would have won that race if he completed it.
Since 2014 Hamilton has finished in 1st or 2nd on this circuit, excluding the race he retired from in 2016. We believe Hamilton’s odds should be a little shorter than they are, we were expecting to see his odds around -110, which means we have some value betting him at +110. There is a chance Verstappen has the fastest car in the Red Bull as they are expected to be fast around here but at plus money, we are riding Hamilton while he is hot. He has proved many times he is the master of this track.