Spanish GP free betting picks and race predictions. Can we top our +12 units from last week’s race? Read below to see this weekend’s best F1 race tips.
Formula1 Spanish GP
Sunday, August 16th, 2020 – Race Time 9.10am EST – Circuit De-Catalunya
As we suspected last time out, the Mercedes drivers struggled with tire issues due to the heat, this ultimately caused them to finish 2nd and 3rd behind Red Bull driver Max Verstappen. This was the first race this season that hasn’t been won by either Mercedes driver. We must give credit to Daniil Kvyat who managed to finish in the top ten at +300, finishing ahead of some big names such as, Sebastian Vettel, Daniel Riccardo, and Kimi Raikkonen, Carlos Sainz and also his very competitive teammate Pierre Gasly.
This weekend the Drivers and their teams head to Circuit De-Catalunya in Barcelona. I don’t think anyone will be surprised to hear that Mercedes have won five of the previous six races at this track, the only exception being in 2016 when both Mercedes drivers collided with each other, so you would suspect they would have won that one also and Max Verstappen kind of won by default. Lewis Hamilton has won four of the last six and three in a row at this track.
With that being said, it’s hard to see Mercedes being beaten this weekend. Will the warm weather and their tire issues persist? Possibly, but there are just so much faster than everyone else right now that it most likely won’t matter. Let’s see where we can find some value ahead of this weekend’s Spanish GP.
Winning Driver Odds
- Lewis Hamilton -182
- Valtteri Bottas +275
- Max Verstappen +500
- Sergio Perez +3300
- Charles Leclerc +4000
- Carlos Sainz +5000
- Lando Norris +5000
- Lance Stroll +5000
- Alex Albon +5000
- Sebastian Vettel +10000
- Daniel Riccardo +25000
- Estaban Ocon +50000
- Rest Of Field +100000
Top 6 Finish
Carlos Sainz has been very unlucky this season, his best finish was 5th in the first race, but he was also on course for a 4th place finish a few races back when his tire punctured on the penultimate lap. This weekend is his home Grand Prix and although he has only managed to cash this bet on one of five occasions at this circuit, he did finish in 7th on two others and 8th and 9th respectively. The difference with this year is he has a very competitive car, very capable of finishing in the top 6.
This circuit in the past has produced very few safety cars during F1 races. Roughly we get a safety car about 30% of the time at the Spanish GP. This should mean the odds for a safety car are around +230. Unfortunately, the betting sites feel there is a 52% chance this weekend and are only offering us odds of -110. Usually, with such a huge difference in statistical odds and current odds I would just stay away, BUT the tire issue for a lot of teams this season has been real and the warmer it is, the worse it is, for this reason, I am prepared to take -110 for a safety car ahead of Sunday’s race.
Safety Car: Yes -110 with Best Online Sportsbooks Available
This kind of relates to the previous reasoning, I feel the tire issues will keep the race very tight this weekend and we can get the best F1 odds for winning margin under 4 seconds at +175. The winning margin has been under 4 seconds in three of the previous five races at this track. The other two races have had winning margins of over 8 seconds. Over 8 seconds is currently +110, this holds zero value for me considering we most likely will have these tire problems.
Winning Margin: Under 4 Seconds +175 with Best Online Sportsbooks Available
This has been a very difficult season for the former four-time world champion. He currently lies down in 13th place in the championship standing, with a measly 10 points. Compare that to the same time last season, where he had 62 points in the championship. I am not happy with the juice we are giving up for Vettel to finish inside the points this weekend, but I do feel it is a very solid bet. I would prefer -110. As bad as Vettel has been, he is still driving a Ferrari that is well capable of finishing in the top 10 plus his team have added a new chassis to the car after they found a problem with the last one, hopefully, this will help.
Double Points Finish: Sebastian Vettel Points Finish -125 with Intertops
This is a very difficult race to call this weekend. It’s got to be Hamilton all the way, right? Three wins in a row at this track, championship leader by 30 points. I usually don’t bet Hamilton due to his odds being so low, but I kind of think he has a small bit of value this weekend, again the odds are very low at -187. Usually, we see him coming in at -220. The problem I have again is this tire issue that Mercedes have, and no doubt the books have added that to their odds on Hamilton. I can’t chance taking Hamilton at -187, knowing he could have a tire problem. With all that being said, I’m going for the Dutchman, Verstappen at +500. He seems to be the only one putting it to the Mercedes drivers this season. Don’t be surprised with a Mercedes victory, but the value lies with Verstappen. As a small stake lean, I like Sergio Perez at +3300 also.