Solid Soccer Picks for Saturday's Everton vs. Aston Villa

Kevin Stott

Monday, October 13, 2014 2:26 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 13, 2014 2:26 PM UTC

Before betting on Saturday's match between Everton & Aston Villa, keep in mind that Everton’s gotten off to a nightmare start this EPL season and the Toffees find themselves in 17th place.

Betting Odds Overview for Everton vs. Aston Villa
It seems that at this point on the calendar in mid-October, English Premier League fans would have expected Everton to be the club more likely in 10th place and Aston Villa the one in 17th place, but, it’s the other way around heading into this Week 8 fixture with host Everton (1-3-3, 13 GF-16 GA) really needing the win here and the three points much more than visiting Aston Villa (3-1-3, 4 GF-9 GA). And luckily for the Toffees, they get the Villains at the perfect time on the EPL schedule—softened up now in the fifth of a five-game stretch after playing league heavies Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City.

Oddsmakers have made Everton -175 favorites here (Bwin) at home at Goodison Park in Liverpool with visitors Aston Villa healthy underdogs at +450 (Draw +300), so, it shows The Powers That Be who make these odds certainly haven’t given up on Everton yet despite its lousy start. The Total Goals is 2½ Over -137 (Under +107, bet365), so goals are expected and an Anytime Goalscorer prop may be worth examination if you think you have an angle although this could end up being a low-scoring affair (0-0, 1-0, 1-1), making any prop bet in that category more of a crapshoot and not too value-laden if one of the top favorites ends up scoring.


Aston Villa
Aston Villa may dwell in the top half of the table for now, but when you have just 4 goals in mid-October, you know that the writing is on the wall even if the Claret and Blue have played the type of brutal schedule that it has to date. Manager Paul Lambert just doesn’t have the same type of top-level players on his roster with which to work in the competitive Premier League and he’ll have to count on guys like Christian Benteke (+220, Anytime Goalscorer, Boylesports), Christian Atsu (+190), Gabriel Agbonlahor (+320) and Darren Bent (+333) to get the goals. So, this far from prolific offense puts tons of pressure on starting goalkeeper Brad Guzan with its frequent absence. And knowing this, makes Anytime Goalscorer bets on any Aston Villa players a waste of both precious Time and Money, while Aston Villa’s Opponent To Nil and Under the Total Goals bets seem somewhat logical looks with a Lions club which has scored 0 goals scored 4 times so far—and one which hasn’t scored a league goal since its Sept. 13 upset win (1-0) against Liverpool at Anfield. So, that’s at least 35 days without a league goal as heavies Arsenal (3-0), Chelsea (3-0) and Manchester City (2-0) all registered clean sheets against Aston Villa in its last three matches. Some statistical food for thought if contemplating a side or totals bet in this match.


Manager Roberto Martínez signed a new contract in the off-season and the Toffees also locked up future star Ross Barkley, but, this new Premier League season has been a bit of a bummer so far for 17th-place Everton (1-3-3, 7 points) which was so close to qualifying for a UEFA Champions League spot last season it could almost taste it. But even with manager Martínez and the talented Barkley locked up as well as former Chelsea-loanee and now Everton key cog Romelu Lukaku (-110, Anytime Scorer, Boylesports) signed and in tow, this team is having some serious growing pains right now and isn’t playing the way it has over the past couple of seasons. To boost its attack, the Toffeemen also signed former Chelsea striker Samuel Eto’o (-114), but Everton will really end up depending on guys like 30-year-old Arouna Koné (+120), dependable Steven Naismith (+125)—who scored the winner in Everton’s 2-1 win in this fixture here at Goodison Park last season—Aiden McGeady (+190), Leighton Baines (+229), Leon Osman (+310), Steven Pienaar (+229) and Gareth Barry (+350) to produce the goals and rally this teams from the depths of the EPL standings.

Although he hasn’t played yet for Everton this season, the 20-year-old Barkley (torn knee ligaments) will reportedly be returning to training this week according to the club’s website and Martínez said he hoped the valuable midfielder would be ready to play by the end of this month, but to expect him to be back and to have any impact here against Villa is a big stretch as Everton will likely take its time with someone so valuable to its future.


Best Betting Approaches
It will probably be a duel of veteran American goalkeepers here in Merseyside with Villa likely going with 30-year-old Guzan and Everton starting 35-year-old Tim Howard. So, although they will hardly be able to see each other at opposite ends of the pitch on Saturday, both will be trying to outdo the other knowing their teams really need solid performances—albeit for different reasons—and that both only have so many seasons left as starting goalkeepers in the Premier League. A 0-0 (Total Goals Exact 0 +1400, SportingBet) or 1-0 (+490, BetBright) final would surprise few here coming off of the international break but it’s really hard to get behind the Under here with the L4 games in this series at Goodison Park all going Over the Total Goals and averaging 3.5 gpg (2-1, 3-3, 2-2, 2-2). Noteworthy, a Both Teams To Score bet (-117, BetVictor) would have won in all four of those meetings.

With host Everton (6-9-6, 30 GF-29 GA lifetime vs. Aston Villa at Home) in a position where a loss at this particular point in time would be pretty crushing, using that motivating fear as a handicapping factor along with the home-field edge and the fact the Claret and Blue are facing an opponent which is tied with the second-least number of goals in the league makes backing Everton -175 (Bwin) with your soccer pick seem very appealing in this spot. It’s almost a must-win situation for the home team here and although it’s still only very early Fall, logic dictates that the Blues find a way to win this one with one of the dependable old names like Baines, Osman, Howard or Naismith coming through in crunch time for the home team and its betting backers.

Free Soccer Pick: Everton -175 (Bwin)

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