Soccer Predictions: MLS Week 12 Best Value Picks

LA Galaxy player in action

Thursday, May 18, 2017 5:20 PM GMT

It is time to handicap for the best value bets in week 12. I will offer up some simple approaches in this entertaining and competitive league and betting market which continued to grow a little every year.

New York Red Bulls vs. Toronto FC

Red Bull Arena · Friday, May 19 · 7:30 pm ET

Sebastian Giovinco (6 goals), Jozy Altidore (6 goals) and Toronto FC (7-4-1, 20 GF-11 GA) head to The Big Apple to face Bradley Wright-Phillips (4 goals) and the Red Bulls (5-1-6, 12 GF-18 GA) in a big Eastern Conference Week 12 fixture. This game sees the Reds in red-hot form (WWWWWW).

A look at the L5 meetings in this series reveals the home club 3-1-1 with 4 Overs in 5 games and GK Luis Robles and the Red Bulls (4-1-1, 8 GF-4 GA Home) posting two clean sheets by 3-0 scores. With TFC tied for the most goals scored in the Eastern Conference (20), the Red Bulls uncharacteristically tied for allowing the most (18) and the weather finally warming up (partly cloudy, Low 56°, N Winds 10 to 15 mph), the Over 2½ seems the smart look in a match which totally seems to fit the Draw ( +260 at Bet365) mold.

 

Final Score Prediction: NY Red Bulls 2 Toronto FC 2Free MLS Picks: Over 2½ (-130) at Bookmaker

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Seattle Sounders vs. Real Salt Lake

CenturyLink Field · Saturday, May 20 · 5 pm ET

Clint Dempsey (4 goals) and the defending MLS-champion Sounders (2-4-4, 15 GF-16 GA) play host to slumping Real Salt Lake (2-2-7, 9 GF-22 GA) in a big match from the Emerald City. Looking at the L5 meetings in this Western Conference series we have three straight 2-1 scorelines, the home team an unbeaten 5-0 (11 GF-4 GA) and that Seattle has outscored Yura Movsisyan (4 goals) and RSL by a 7-3 margin the L3 in Seattle.

A deeper handicapping dive reveals Nicolás Lodeiro (3 goals) and the Sounders (1-2-1, 6 GF-5 GA at Home) are 8-3-2 (21 GF-8 GA) lifetime at home against listless (L4) Real Salt Lake (1-1-4, 4 GF-14 GA on Road), have W6 straight against and are unbeaten in the last 8 in Washington against them (16 GF-5 GA). A good club and a very good spot (RSL on 2 Days Rest) for Jordan Morris (2 goals) and the 9th-place hosts to see on the schedule in which to try to get well. For this game, my betting pick will be with the visitor's win.

 

Final Score Prediction: Sounders 3 Real Salt Lake 0Free MLS Picks: Sounders -200 at Bet365

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Minnesota United FC vs. LA Galaxy

TCF Bank Stadium · Sunday, May 21 · 5 pm ET

Nobody lost more in the Offseason than the LA Galaxy (3-2-5. 13 GF -16 GA) did, but with HC Bruce Arena, this long-time MLS stalwart will slowly jell, as was evident in MLS Week 11. The Galaxy ended the Red Bulls 13-month home unbeaten streak with a 3-1 win as Giovanni dos Santos (3 goals) scored once and the electric Romain Alessandrini notched a brace giving the visitors two goals in the first 10 minutes. Here, Gyasi Zardes and the Galaxy are in the hometown of the late musical genius Prince to face Christian Ramirez (6 goals), Kevin Molino (5 goals) and the expansion Minnesota United FC (3-2-6, 17 GF-28 GA) in a Western Conference fixture between the 7th- and 8th-place clubs who are both sitting on 11 points.

With MNUFC playing games averaging 4.10 gpg and coming off a 3-2 loss at Toronto in Week 11, backing the Over 2½ (-222 at Intertops) seems wise in this nationally televised Soccer match, as does taking a shot on the visitors from Lalaland (1-2-3, 5 GF-8 GA) who are finally feeling good about themselves for the first time this still young MLS Regular Season and need to start scoring some goals on the road. And with the 28-year-old Frenchman and former Marseille (Ligue 1) winger Alessandrini clicking for the Galaxy, they should score twice or maybe thrice in this spot at newbies MNUFC.

 

Final Score Prediction: Minnesota United FC 2 LA Galaxy 3Free MLS Picks: LA Galaxy +140 at Bet365

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