Soccer Picks: Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 8, 2013 8:58 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 8, 2013 8:58 PM UTC

Borussia Dortmund return to domestic action following disappointment in Champions League, all the while wary of any spill over into match day 12 in Bundesliga when they take on Wolfsburg on the road. Odds are in full swing so join us as we analyse this tilt and deliver our soccer free picks.

Borussia Dortmund look to bounce back

Borussia Dortmund were dealt a defeat by Arsenal in midweek Champions League action but they must refocus their attentions to domestic action in a short space of time. A date with fifth-placed Wolfsburg looms on the imminent horizon, which they can’t afford to lose if they hope to continue to apply pressure on pacesetters Bayern Munich (just a point ahead) and maintain the gap over Bayer Leverkusen, who are nipping at their heels just three points adrift. In fact, sportsbooks are cornering this game firmly in their camp with attractive -150 odds at Bet365 to win on the road.

The Black and Yellows are sat in second place on 28 points on the back of an impressive 9-1-1 mark through 11 laps around the Bundesliga track, including an impressive 6-0-0 home mark and an equally solid 3-1-1 record on the road. The two occasions when the Borussia Bees leaked points on the road were a 1-1 draw at Nurnberg and a 2-0 defeat to Borussia M’gladbach.

Ahead of Wednesday’s Champions League date with Arsenal, they’d won all seven of their previous competitive home games. The 1-0 defeat to Arsenal is the first blemish on an otherwise flawless record this term.

It’s also their first defeat in their last four competitive games overall, a solid run of form made all the more impressive with a 2-1 win over Arsenal at the Emirates and back-to-back emphatic routings in Bundesliga –  3-1 over Schalke on the road and 6-1 over Stuttgart at home. It remains to be seen whether this recent setback in Europe will have any ramifications for them in Bundesliga, specifically in this next clash.

That is not to say Wolfsburg alone aren’t a credible threat to Borussia Dortmund. Position in the leagues’ top-five alone justifies them such consideration. More importantly, they boast a 4-0-1 record at home, as well form is on the ascent of late on the back of a three-game winning streak, which includes a 3-0 win over Werder Bremen and 2-1 wins over both Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt. The last and only home defeat Wolfsburg suffered was a 2-0 defeat to Eintracht Braunschweig in early October, an occasion when Wolfsburg was guilty of overconfidence, underestimating a Bundesliga basement dweller.

Of course, none of the above prevails in the soccer betting outlook for this game that, by and large, discredits Wolfsburg at whopping +400 soccer odds or there in. So the question is do the bookies have it right or are they underestimating Wolfsburg here?

Soccer Betting Verdict:

Wolfsburg faces a tough ask against Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, no question about it. The Black and Yellows have only lost three competitive fixtures this season, two of which were in Champions League. And the only other occasion when they leaked points was on a draw to Nurnberg. Otherwise, Bundesliga has seen them nigh flawless.

It’s hard to argue with such convincing form and, thus, the soccer-betting outlook on this game is in theory correct: Dortmund the rightful -150 favourites and Wolfsburg the appropriate +400 underdogs. The natural extension: Dortmund will be the popular soccer pick.

Just to be a bit of a devil’s advocate, if you will, it’s interesting to note that that when the Borussia Bees did leak points – defeat to M’gladbach and draw to Nurnberg – both those occasions followed a European commitment. Hmmmm? Now, that is not exactly a rock-solid hook to hang your hat on, but if you were inclined towards a surprise outcome then what better occasion than one that follows not just a European commitment but also a European disappointment to boot?  

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":247833, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Soccer Free Picks:

We still maintain the safe bet is Borussia Dortmund to win outright at -150 and that is our recommended soccer pick. However, we do recognise the penchant for the upset here and, as such, the safer option would be the draw at +280 compared to the outright upset at +400 soccer odds. But you never know. You decide. 

comment here