Soccer Picks: West Ham to Dominate Match Over a Weakened Chelsea

Martin Williams

Thursday, October 22, 2015 3:45 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015 3:45 PM UTC

West Ham has now proven to have the pace and skill to manipulate Chelsea's defense, regardless of what they've survived. Let's overview the soccer odds and determine if this is true.


West Ham Has the Upper Hand Against Chelsea
West Ham are +300 with Paddy Power to win this game and that looks like a very attractive soccer pick. The Hammers are sitting pretty in fourth place in the Premiership table, having made a strong start to the season under new manager Slaven Bilic. They have already made a habit of beating the big teams this term, with Arsenal and Liverpool among their scalps. They are fresh from a hard-fought 3-1 away win against Crystal Palace in their last game and go into the match against Chelsea full of confidence. They are the home side and will be spurred by a ferocious crowd at Upton Park.

Chelsea meanwhile have endured a torrid start to the season. In just nine games, they have already suffered defeats at the hands of Southampton, Everton, Crystal Palace, and Man City. A 2-0 win against perennial whipping boys Aston Villa last weekend barely papered over huge cracks in the squad. Manager Jose Mourinho is at odds with several key players, having dropped captain John Terry, midfield linchpin Nemanja Matic and last season’s player of the year Eden Hazard for crucial games, and he is rumored to be close to being fired. This is a side low on confidence, inept where they were previously imperious, with errors creeping into the games of formerly dependable stalwarts Bransilav Ivanovic, Terry and Matic.

West Ham have the pace and skill to exploit this frail Chelsea defense. Quick, dangerous players like Manuel Lanzini and Victor Moses will run at them and attempt to expose their lack of pace. Mark Noble has been a revelation this season in midfield, while new signing Dimitri Payet has been unplayable at times and the ever-dangerous Andy Carroll is now back in the mix following a lengthy injury lay-off.

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Odds Overview
Chelsea look like they will concede goals every time they play: the Aston Villa game was only their second clean sheet of the season. West Ham have kept three clean sheets this season. Every single game both teams have played this season has featured more than 1.5 goals. Therefore the -425 on offer Unibet for more than 1.5 goals in this game looks to be almost money in the bank. The -133.33 for more than 2.5 goals also looks attractive.

You can never write Chelsea off. They are the defending champions, and they have the ability within their squad to beat any team in the league. But they just haven’t clicked into gear yet this season, and a mini-revival started against Aston Villa could be cut short here. The best price you can get on Chelsea to win vs Ham here is -110 at some sportsbooks and that is not particularly tempting for an out-of-form side playing away from home against a team eight places above them in the league. You can get +280 on a draw at Pinnacle, and this is a more intriguing bet. A draw would suit both teams. There is no shame in taking a point off the defending champions, when you consider how expensively assembled they are, and it would send West Ham fans home relatively happy. If they were to draw, Chelsea could point to a continued revival and signs that they are gradually getting back to their best by taking a point off a team that has already vanquished Arsenal and Liverpool.

Betfred and Tote Sport are offering +700 on a 1-1 draw, which looks like a good bet given both teams’ penchant for conceding goals. Another interesting bet is +1400 for a 2-1 win to West Ham. Even consider these EPL odds: +3400 for a 3-1 win, as Chelsea could find themselves 2-1 down, take a risk in going for an equaliser, get caught on the break, and ship a third goal at the death. Payet has banged in five goals in eight games so far this season and looks a good bet at +280 with Betfair to score at any time.  

Free EPL Pick: West Ham Utd +280 at BetCRIS


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