Soccer Picks: Turkey vs. Netherlands WCQ Betting Preview

Mike Richardson

Sunday, October 13, 2013 5:30 PM GMT

Your Humble Handicapper has taken another look at the soccer odds on offer from sportsbooks for Group D World Cup Qualifiers and sees a way to turn a tidy profit when Turkey take on the Netherlands on Tuesday.

The Netherlands have already booked their ticket to next year’s tournament after they stiffed Hungary 8-1 on Friday. It’s a done deal now, but before that match the sportsbooks were already offering up odds on the Netherlands qualifying of 1/41, while the soccer odds on Hungry making it through were around 3/1.

The sportsbooks are also offering up odds on which side other than the Netherlands will turn up in a top two finish: Romania is listed at 4/7, Turkey at 3/1 and Hungary 7/2.

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Enough with the past soccer odds… WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

Holland have won all eight of their qualifiers so far, but have yet to be really tested. (Hello Hungary, I'm talking to you!)

This is a good time as any to mention that Holland run as high as 20/1 to win the World Cup in Brazil; although some sportsbooks are offering soccer odds as low as 14/1 on the same outcome. The best soccer odds your Humble Handicapper has seen for Holland come out on top are 22/1.

Holland are seventh favourites by my reckoning, but there is very little to separate fifth favourite Belgium and seventh favourite Holland as most bookmakers have them both (along with Italy) somewhere between 14/1 and 20/1 to win the World Cup

Holland don’t need to beat Turkey, so I think with the Turks having home advantage and Holland not needing the points, this game will either be a Turkey victory or a draw.

The sportsbooks have the following odds of 6/4 for a Turkey win, 13/8 on the Netherlands and 11/4 on a draw.

Turkey have won their last three games and are undefeated in four, Holland have won their last two and drawn the two before that.

Still, Holland did score eight (count 'em, eight!) in their last game, so maybe backing them isn’t a bad idea. However, if you only look at the last game and bet accordingly, that’s an amateur sports pick.

Before hosting Hungary, the Netherlands hadn’t scored more than two goals in their last four games. Also, don’t forget that the last time Turkey played at home, they scored five.

Because Holland can always be relied on to score goals and Turkey have home advantage, your Humble Handicapper is going to go for a score draw in his soccer picks. A score of 2-2, which both sides have recently experienced (Turkey at home and the Netherlands away, mind you), is certainly worth a bet at 13/1, but your Humble Handicapper advises you to spread your odds around.

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Soccer Pick: Turkey/Netherlands game ends even at 1-1, available at 13/2 odds with William Hill

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