Soccer Picks & Tips for Valencia vs. Real Madrid

Nila Amerova

Tuesday, December 17, 2013 1:51 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2013 1:51 PM UTC

Valencia and Real Madrid collide in La Liga week 17. With odds already in full swing, here’s a primer on this highly anticipated clash with a few free soccer picks for your consideration.

Real Madrid dropped points to Osasuna  

Real Madrid are five points off pace setters Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in La Liga, failing to close the gap at the weekend when they came up short against Osasuna with a 2-2 draw on the road. A costly miss as both title rivals won at the weekend quite convincingly in order to advance their cause in the title race. Barcelona came through on their fancied soccer odds with 2-1 win over Villarreal. Similarly, Atletico Madrid crushed Valencia 3-0.

Real Madrid can’t afford further missteps, not if they are to come through on their favourable odds to win La Liga by season end, which are currently trading at +250, slightly larger than Barcelona at -188 but significantly shorter than Atletico Madrid at +600 at Bet365.

Real Madrid continue on the road this weekend with a date at Valencia on Sunday, a match that odds makers firmly corner in their camp with -163 odds to win outright.

Real Madrid are third in the table going into week 17 La Liga betting with a 12-2-2 mark, which includes a 5-2-1 mark on the road. That they’ve only lost one match on the road this season (two overall) bodes well for a positive result at Valencia. What’s more, seeing how badly Valencia were beaten by their city rivals Atleti, Real Madrid will be looking at that result as both encouraging and an added incentive not to be outdone.

Predictably, sportsbooks across the board send Valencia into this home affair at the significant disadvantage. Bet365 is offering +425 soccer odds on the home win and +300 soccer odds on the draw – clearly, there is little market confidence in either result.

Valencia are 6-2-8 so far on the season, a run of form that sees them in ninth place on 20 points. At home, they boast a modest 4-1-3 record and they have scored 14 goals while conceding 10. Recent form in domestic action has been somewhat inconsistent with Valencia 2-1-2 in their last five matches, home and away.

That said Valencia’s last home win was a 3-0 win over Osasuna; ironically, the very same lightweight side that Real Madrid failed to beat. As well, they pulled off a win over Sevilla earlier this season and played Barcelona to a close 3-2 defeat.

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Valencia vs. Real Madrid betting tips and picks:

While it wouldn’t be prudent to underestimate Valencia, Real Madrid are more than well equipped to take all three points on the road. That they failed against Osasuna is no reason to panic nor should it deter sports bettors looking to back them on the road win. The draw to Osasuna was a blip, a slight hiccup in an otherwise standout season that stands at 12-2-2 overall. It should only serve as added incentive to get it right this time around.

As such, we fancy Real Madrid at -163 at Bet365 to win outright over Valencia. In fact, the last meeting in La Liga between this pair went 5-0 to Real Madrid. So take the road win and add the Over 2.5 at -225 as your value soccer picks for this match. 

Soccer Free Picks: Real Madrid at -163; Over 2.5 at -225
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