Soccer Picks & Tips: AS Roma vs. Napoli

Nila Amerova

Friday, May 17, 2013 3:53 PM GMT

AS Roma and Napoli are set to ring out their respective Serie A seasons at the weekend when they collide at Stadio Olimpico in the nation’s capital. Find out what the markets have to say about this clash and where the value is to be had with our soccer picks.

AS Roma marginally favoured

AS Roma enter their final Serie A fixture, a home affair, as the marginal favourites tipped at +130 at William Hill to win outright.

AS Roma currently hold seventh spot in the table with a 17-8-9 mark on the season and 59 points tallied. They are two points shy of sixth-placed Lazio, a side they are set to face in Coppa Italia. Home form has been modest this season, 9-5-4 to date and reveals a +15 goal differential (they’ve scored 38 goals and conceded 23).

Recent form has been inconsistent with a 4-4-2 mark in their last ten overall Serie A fixtures. Home form has been slightly better with a 5 -3-2 mark in their last ten. Their most recent home engagement however resulted in a 1-0 defeat to Chievo.

 AS Roma are flush off a scoreless draw to AC Milan on the road, a result that thwarted the Rossoneri’s ambitions towards Champions League next season. (AC Milan, third in the table, but just two points ahead of Fiorentina, now have to decide European fate in the final lap around the Italian league.) What should have been a celebration of AS Roma’s accomplishment in Milan however was marred by the racist chants from Roma fans in the stadium, a happenstance that halted the game for almost two minutes and served as a crude reminder of the issues that still permeate through Italian football.

Indeed, AS Roma will look to finish their season on a more savoury note when they take on Napoli. To do so however – aside from their fans learning how to behave, of course – their offense will need to pick up pace. Since a 4-0 victory over Siena, it has gone MIA. Roma has managed to score only once in their last three fixtures and twice they were held scoreless. Speaking of the scoreboard, soccer odds makers seem to be leaning towards a 1-1 draw, which is trading at +750. Curiously, the next best price is a 2-1 victory by Roma at +850.

Napoli look to end Serie A on winning note

Napoli looks to wrap up a historic season with a victory in their final lap in Serie A. Napoli, second in the table with a 23-9-4 mark and 78 points, are enjoying a nine-game undefeated streak (8 wins and a draw) ahead of their date with AS Roma. They’ve won their last five in row, including a 3-1 win over Internazionale.

Over this incredible run of form, they maintained a clean sheet three times and eight times they scored two goals or more. Most recently, they beat Siena 2-1 at home.

In spite of this rich vein of form, odds makers tip Napoli as the decided underdogs at betting odds of +175 at William Hill. Incidentally, the draw is trading at +240.

Road form hasn’t been as good as their home form this season. It stands at 9-5-4 to date, a mark that probably had an influence on the market for this game. That said they are riding a four-game undefeated streak on the road, including two back-to-back clean sheets courtesy of a 3-0 victory over both Pescara and Bologna. Furthermore, over this four game stretch they’ve score 12 goals and conceded only four! A 3-0 win at AS Roma can be backed at delicious +2800 and a 3-1 win can be backed at +1800. Sportsbooks seem to favour however a 2-1 victory by Napoli at +900.

[gameodds]10/227165/43/us[/gameodds]

Soccer Betting Verdict: Given Napoli’s momentum right now, which looks rather unstoppable, a Napoli win would appear to be on the cards. Certainly, it’s the value play at +175 for soccer fans. What is also a value play is backing a high-scoring affair given how Napoli has been scoring at whim of late. In short, soccer fans can do no worse than back a side that is so clearly hot right now and full of confidence. Of course, AS Roma will be no pushovers. They proved that against AC Milan on their last outing and so we can’t say that there is no value on the home win. Odds makers definitely tip the balance in their favour. What do you think?

Soccer Free Picks: Napoli at betting odds of +175 to win 3-1 at +1800 at William Hill