Soccer Picks & Tips: Getafe vs. Valencia

Nila Amerova

Friday, May 17, 2013 7:20 PM GMT

Spanish La Liga action features the clash between Getafe and Valencia, what is an important fixture for Valencia towards a fourth place finish and Champions League contention. Valencia hit the road as the odds on favourites to win but will they come through on those odds? Check out our analysis and our free soccer picks.

Valencia desperate for fourth place finish

Valencia are desperate for a fourth place finish and Champions League contention however they are in a battle with Real Sociedad, a side that is neck-and neck with Valencia on 59 points in the table.

Valencia, tipped at soccer odds of -125 to win outright at William Hill, goes into this fixture riding a two-game winning streak which includes back-to-back resounding 4-0 victories over Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano, respectively. 

Overall, form has been positive in their last ten games with six wins, two draws and just two defeats – crucially however, a 4-2 defeat to Real Sociedad late last month and a 1-0 defeat to Athletic Club.

Offense has been working overtime for Valencia, scoring an incredible tally of 29 goals over the last ten games. Six of their games saw them score three goals or more. Twice they scored five goals in a game – a 5-1 win over Castellon and Malaga, respectively. Speaking of scoring, if you are inclined to back Valencia to the win, then a 2-1 score line is listed at +700 while a 1-0 score line is listed at +800. Given the scoring frenzy Valencia put forward in their last two games perhaps a 4-0 score which is going for +2800 is an option to consider.

On the road, Valencia struggled with consistency however this season – the second half producing much better results though compared to the first half where they couldn’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they tried. Recently, Valencia have trekked to a 5-3-2 mark on the road which includes the recent 4-0 win over Rayo Vallecano.

Getafe could make things difficult

Getafe fancy their chances against Valencia despite being listed at discouraging odds of +333 at William Hill for the home win. Getafe is a respectable ninth in the table right now on a 13-8-14 mark for the season, of which home form is an encouraging 9-4-4. Where Getafe leaked points is on the road with a subpar 4-4-10 mark.

Home form is what counts for this affair however and thankfully for it Getafe fans have a sliver of hope here. They are undefeated in nine of their last ten home games with five wins and four draws. The only defeat they suffered at Coliseum Alfonso Perez in Madrid was a 2-0 defeat to Espanyol a fortnight ago.

In fact, Getafe is flush off a 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad at home. The reverse fixture they held Real Sociedad to a 1-1 draw on the road. Certainly, from these results they can draw inspiration as they prepare to face Valencia. A 2-1 win by Getafe is trading for +1200 while a 1-0 win is next up, going for +1400.

It seems that Getafe raises the level of play against clubs that are perceived better than they are and that they are rewarded for it typically by a stake in the result. Twice they held Athletic Madrid to a draw, they also held Seville to a draw and they didn’t lose the series against Real Sociedad. By the way, the draw is going for +260. If you are so inclined, a 1-1 draw can be added to your free picks at +700.

[gameodds]17/228678/43/us[/gameodds]

Soccer Betting Verdict: The balance tips towards Valencia because they have the motivation to win this fixture. That together with the momentum and the form from their last two games makes it seem improbable Getafe will be able to stop them. Overwhelmingly, a play on Valencia seems the smart play and the betting public agrees, leaning towards a 2-1 win.

Soccer Free Picks: Valencia to win 2-1