Soccer Picks & Tips for Chelsea vs. Liverpool

Nila Amerova

Saturday, December 28, 2013 9:25 PM GMT

Saturday, Dec. 28, 2013 9:25 PM GMT

Chelsea take on Liverpool in a high-stakes match at the weekend, marking week 19 of EPL betting. Join us as we preview this top-of-the-table clash between third placed Chelsea and fourth placed Liverpool.

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Liverpool plummet to fourth

Going into the Christmas Break Liverpool were sat pretty atop the table with 36 points and an 11-3-4 mark, dethroning Arsenal only on goal differential. That lofty perch however lasted just a few days. On Boxing Day, Liverpool came up short against Man City in a 2-1 defeat at the Etihad, hallowed grounds that every single visitor so far this season has found tough to conquer and, incidentally, a matchup that esteemed SBR Forum contributor Mike Richardson predicted accurately in both win and correct score betting picks.

The defeat saw Liverpool plummet down to fourth place in the table but with three points marking the difference between top spot and fourth place it’s no reason for panic. Liverpool remain table-topping contenders listed at +650 in futures odds at Bet365, fourth in line to the throne behind Man City at +100 and the tandem of Chelsea and Arsenal at +450 soccer odds. Besides, there is no shame in losing to a side that is virtually unbeatable at home as Man City are so far  (now at 9-0-0 at home ahead of EPL week 19).

The real measure of Liverpool and their overarching credentials though will be assessed following their clash with Chelsea, their second road game and second big club test in almost as many days. Failing against both Man City and Chelsea in succession will not help their soccer odds or credibility in sports betting circles.

Chelsea hold to third

As expected Chelsea beat Swansea City to come through on their strong -333 soccer odds to win outright, but contrary to market opinion (and some of our soccer picks) they needed just one goal to net the three crucial points.

Chelsea beat Swansea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge to improve their recent form to 4-1-1, just one win less than high-flying, in-form Man City who are now up to second in the league table, looking to overtake Arsenal before the New Year.

Well so too are Chelsea as a matter of fact. They are third in the table on the back of an overall 11-4-3 record and 37 points, just two points behind Arsenal. Auspiciously, Chelsea are undefeated at home with an 8-1-0 mark, which they’ll definitely need to extend at the expense of Liverpool if they hope to maintain the pressure on the top tandem or, if possible, overtake the pair.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool betting tips and picks:

As far as sports betting markets go, the market on this clash is rather coy with most sportsbooks listing both sides on the short side of even money. Bet365 has taken a comparable stance with Chelsea tipped at +100, Liverpool listed at +260 and the draw listed at +250.

When big clubs collide, value can always be found in each camp. Given the tight and competitive nature of the Premier League season however and the proximity of both clubs in the table and their connection to the title bid – something Jose Mourinho referred to as a unique situation recently –  that notion is compounded further. The premium on the win is extremely high. Equally so is the fear of defeat, which would be costly and set a club back – Liverpool’s defeat to Man City and subsequent fall to fourth is case-and-point.

It is tempting to shade Liverpool on the win at +260 or even the draw at +250 when the Reds just came close to forcing at least the draw on Man City but for a goal that was controversially ruled offside. As well, they are the second highest scoring outfit in the league right now. Those are two very good reasons to recommend the upset for your soccer picks, amongst several others.

Nonetheless, if there were a balance to tip the scale towards one side it would be home form vs. road form. Chelsea, as mentioned above, remain undefeated at home. Liverpool’s road record, which is a rather modest 3-3-3 this season, on paper doesn’t seem up to the task. Therefore, on the merit of that stat alone the recommended soccer pick would have to be the home win, which is listed at +100, although nobody (not least us) would be surprised if Liverpool does turn the odds in their favour after all.

Free Soccer Picks: Chelsea to win outright at +100

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