Soccer Picks: Take Advantage Of Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid In The Second Half

Bernardo Baltazar

Monday, May 2, 2016 7:51 PM GMT

The 2nd leg of the UCL Semi-Finals is here with the Bavarians having the hard task of beating the world best team on defense! Click here for the soccer pick & game preview. 

Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid
With a 1-0 result on the first leg, Simeone beat Guardiola on a game where he achieved his objectives, winning and not conceding a single goal.

Bayern Munich had some opportunities to score but couldn’t take advantage of them. Now at home, they have the obligation to win the game by two goals to reach the final in 90 minutes, which is a very difficult task against Atletico Madrid, even for Guardiola’s team.

On their domestic competitions both teams are fighting for the title, Atletico still has the opportunity to be champion while Munich should win the Bundesliga next week.

Bayern Munich is not going through a good moment of the season, on the last weekend they weren’t able of winning the Bundesliga with a 1-1 draw at home against Borussia Monchengladbach. Looking at their last games at home for the Champions League, they had to recover from 0-2 against Juventus and more recently, they won by 1-0 against Benfica in a game where the Portuguese had clear goal chances and could have achieved a bit more. Therefore, it’s expectable that Atletico can create clear goal chances on this game with their good transitions and they know that if they score one goal, Bayern needs to score 3 to reach the final!

 

Betting Overview
There is no secret on Atletico’s approach to this game, they’ll try to get advantage of some anxiety that the Germans might present on this game to score a goal and defend with all team, which is something that they are can do better than anyone else. The Spanish team knows that one goal puts them very close to the final and they will have to play this game with all their focus and effort, since is almost impossible to stop this Bayern team at home.

On the other hand, Guardiola is hopping for his team to be more efficient at the Allianz Arena than they were in Madrid, otherwise the risk of being eliminated here is very high. It’s expected that Bayern controls the game and tries to attack since the first minute, but the extra risks might only be taken in the later stages of the game in case the goal doesn’t appear.

Sportsbooks don’t have a clear position regarding the goals market, with the Over 2.5 goals and the Both Teams to Score – Yes both priced above evens on this game, around @+105.

These two prices show how tough it is to make a call on this market, with Atletico being able to hold Bayern Munich and they know it.

Regarding the winners market, Bayern is still a clear favorite but the soccer odds for their victory have increased and can be found @1.64 Pinnacle, a fair price when looking at what Bayern paid against other teams not much inferior to Atletico.

We have to say that this game is very difficult to call on these markets, because we feel that it can go either way due to the defensive errors that Bayern has committed recently. Even though, there is one bet that presents good value on this game, the parallel market on goals, Highest Scoring Half – 2nd +105 at Bet365

Atletico will try to hold the draw to nil as long as they can and they should do it in the 1st half, which means that the risks should be taken later in the game.

We all remember what Muller told the press after their game at home vs Juventus, where they were losing by 2nil at the HT and Guardiola threatened to ‘cut their players balls off’ if they lost to Juventus.

In case Bayern is already leading at HT, we expect a similar approach by Atletico’s coach to his players, which will open the game and make it easier for Bayern to kill it and give us the win here too!

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Free Soccer Pick: Highest Scoring Half in the 2nd Half 
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