Soccer Picks: Southampton Over Tottenham With Bonus Prop

Lee Phelps

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 7:21 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 7:21 PM UTC

This weekend a team challenging for the top four go up against a side who are in the top four, but have the bookmakers got the odds correct? Check out our capper's guide to the best picks and the betting on Tottenham versus Southampton.

Home or Away?
Once upon a time it was better to be at home in a football match, all of a sudden now it appears footballers prefer to play away. Tottenham are another side who seem to be better suited to allowing the opposition more possession, using pace on the break and trusting their strikers to score. They were woeful against Liverpool at White Hart Lane, lost 1-0 to West Brom in front of the Spurs’ faithful, struggled for an hour against Nottingham Forest (albeit with a weakened side) but did smash QPR 4-0 earlier in the season.

Their performance in the North London derby was measured and they hit Arsenal on the break. If only their finishing had been better they may have won the game. This week Mauricio Pochettino faces his former team, who have, of course, been excellent and will relish being the away side themselves.


Tottenham Nil
Apart from the four goals Spurs bagged against QPR, who just stood off and let Tottenham play, they haven’t scored a goal against their other two home opponents, again feeding the argument they are better on the road, where they don’t have to break teams down. The one man who has been providing goals so far is Nacir Chadli. He has grabbed four in his last five games. 

Compare this to Andros Townsend, one of his main rivals for a starting berth. The Englishman is always a very lively performer, constantly running, beating his man and taking shots on, but very rarely has a positive contribution to the team.

Tellingly, of the 56 shots he attempted in the league last season, the only one to go in was a miss-hit cross again Aston Villa – and a miss-shot deflected by Roberto Soldado against Nottingham Forest last week became his first assist of the season, having not registered any in the whole 2013/14 premier league season.

Chadli may not be as flashy, but his economical use of the ball is far more effect than Townsend’s efforts, and allows creative players like Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen to flourish.”


Saints v The Sinner
I’m sure the Southampton fans and remaining players from Pochettino’s impressive reign will be keen to show how well they’re coping without him. This week Saints’ legend Matt Le Tissier spoke in glowing in terms about the man pulling the strings now. He called Ronald Koeman a “revelation”. He certainly has been with six straight wins now in the Cup and League and his signings are fitting in very well. I wrote about Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle in an earlier preview when selecting Tadic as one of my free soccer picks. Former Manchester United manager Ron Atkinson once told me “a manager should never make a mistake with a player he knows” and this Koeman Pelle partnership is a great example. He has hit the ground running and his goal last weekend in the win over QPR was fantastic.


Soccer Picks
The bookmakers love Southampton, so finding any value on them is hard work and I've looked hard through the soccer odds here. They are 13/5 to beat Tottenham which isn’t big enough for me, but the draw and the Saints’ win at 3/4 is backable. While Pelle is in this form, I have to back him to score with my soccer pick and at 2/1 it’s a nice price against a defence that has conceded 5 in two games at home.

Soccer Pick: Graziano Pelle to score anytime 2/1

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