Soccer Picks for Serie A: Roma vs. Inter Milan

Nila Amerova

Thursday, February 27, 2014 7:16 PM GMT

Roma and Inter Milan are set to collide for the second time this season in Serie A with the hosts from the nation’s capital up 1-0 in the head-to-head series. Find out what odds are currently available and where the value is to be had.

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Roma look to sweep series

Roma ran away comfortable 3-0 winners in the first meeting with Internazionale Milan, a date in the fashion Mecca in early October that sportsbooks had cornered in the host’s camp, although just shy of even money at +125 soccer odds. Meanwhile, Roma were matched at +200 soccer odds for the upset win in spite of a bright start to the season with six straight wins, five of which were clean sheets including a statement making 5-0 sweep up of Bologna. Tale told the Giallorossi descended on Milan only to extend their impeccable form (at the time) to seven straight wins with a 3-0 victory, not least reward soccer bettors who backed them despite the odds.

Roma’s form continued on that vein through three more fixtures – clean-sheet victories over Napoli, Udinese and Chievo – until Totti’s injury finally unsettled their form just enough to allow Juventus to creep past them in the table. The ensuing five draws and two wins on which they finished the first half of the season saw them drop to second place all the while Juventus picked up their form and extended their lead at the top of the table.


As things currently stand, Roma remain in second place with a six-point edge over Napoli. Juventus however are soaring high with a nine-point lead and the title race firmly under control at -1000 future odds at Bet365. Roma meanwhile are a distant +600 to win the title and Napoli a massive hallucinatory bet at +6600. Fact is a lot would have to go right for both Roma and Napoli – not to mention a lot go wrong for Juventus at the same time – if either were to have a chance to win the title this season.

Roma began the second half of the season with a 3-0 defeat to Juventus in Turin, which was not exactly the start that they’d hoped for in order to challenge Juventus atop the table. It was the expected outcome across sportsbooks as Juventus came through on their favourable -150 soccer odds or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice.

Disappointing though it was, it marked their first defeat on the season. To date, it still remains their only defeat as they are 17-6-1 overall with 57 points and a game in hand. And that’s something to hang one’s hat on.

Most importantly, they have reeled off five wins and a draw (both home and away) since that defeat to keep hope alive for the title. Unfortunately, Juventus haven’t let up much, stubbornly maintaining their sublime form on the season; save for a couple of draws in recent weeks they’ve been above reproach. And so must Roma do the same; that is, if they hope to keep hope alive.

From now and down the stretch, every match is held a ‘Must Win’ in order to pull off what seems more and more impossible with each going week. This includes their date with Inter Milan on Saturday in the nation’s capital, naturally.

Sportsbooks confidently send Roma into their home engagement with Inter as the firm -163 favourites to win outright while tipping Inter Milan at +450 for the upset win. Underscoring Roma’s favourable odds is an almost impeccable home record that stands at 10-2-0 this season.

Now, it’s worth mentioning that Inter Milan have improved somewhat since their shaky start to the season. They are in fifth place with a 10-10-5 record and 40 points, five shy of Fiorentina in fourth place. Their improvements however have been almost exclusively on home ground. Road form is still a worrisome mark at 4-4-4. Most recently, they were enjoying a five-game losing streak but finally snapped it with a 2-1 victory at Fiorentina.

Soccer Betting Verdict

Only hindsight will tell whether Inter Milan’s win over Fiorentina on the road would prove to be a catalyst for an upturn in road form and better fortune on their travels. One victory alone does not a turnaround make. And so, without the benefit of hindsight, we can’t recommend anything other than a home banker in this matchup.

Simply put, Roma have been brilliant this season and nowhere more so than on home ground. What’s more, they are consistent and have the momentum going into this match on the back of a six-match undefeated run. Everything about their form suggests this is their match to win or lose and that makes them the smart soccer pick at -163 to win outright. Inter Milan would really have to rise to the occasion to mastermind the upset, something they’ve not done with any conviction this season.

Soccer Free Picks: Roma to win outright at -163