Soccer Picks: Real Madrid vs. Valladolid

Mike Richardson

Thursday, November 28, 2013 1:49 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 28, 2013 1:49 PM UTC

Pick up some easy money over in Spain when high flying Real Madrid take on struggling Real Valladolid in a game that reeks of money to be won (if you follow your Humble Handicapper’s soccer tips). Lets break down the soccer odds to find our best soccer picks.

Real Madrid are well in form at present, they’ve won their last two games by scoring five goals in each. In their last outing against UD Almeria, Ronaldo opened the scoring before being forced off with a thigh problem, but goals from Karim Benzema, Gareth Bale, Isco and Alvaro Morata secured the unequivocal win.

Enough with the goals…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

Madrid may have won just four of their last five but the soccer odds still fancy the home side to bring home the three point bacon in this encounter. A home win is at 1/7 and away win is at 21/1 while a draw (which would be almost as much as an upset as an away win is at 9/1)

This game should be a close one as the last two meetings have been decided by a single goal. Both those games went Madrid’s way, 4-3 at home and 3-2 away.

Repeats of those scores are available at soccer odds of 100/1 and 22/1 respectively, but if you want to see the same increase in goals (after five goals back in December 2012 and seven in May 2013) go for a nine goal stunner, and if it was to be a nine goal stunner it would have to be a Real Madrid win, but I'm not backing 5-4 to Real even at 500/1.

Long time no win

Valladolid's last away win over Real was a 1-0 success in May 2000 (that score is at 100/1).

Still you can’t argue with the soccer odds when you’re making your soccer picks and the odds tell us that Madrid winning La Liga are 4/1, second only to that team Barcelona while Valladolid are 9/4 for relegation.

Did I mention that Valladolid are on a four game winless run (two defeats and two draws) and have been outscored by their opponents 4-2 in that run. That might sound depressing, but their two defeats were by a single goal margin (maybe 2-1 to Madrid is worth a shout at 11/1 (yes it is).

Be sure to check out SBR's Soccer Betting Forum

The sportsbooks reckon that it won’t be that close and what’s more significant is the fact that the last five meetings between these sides has seen 25 goals (an average of five per game (so maybe 3-2 is worth bet at 28/1 (again yes)). And Madrid have been involved with 30 goals in their last five games (and average of six per game, which would suggest 4-2 or 5-1, at 33/1 and 18/1).

A safe bet but a poor return

That probably why the soccer odds on the game going over 2.5 goals is at 2/9.

Instead I think a safer bet is to back Madrid winning (‘natch) but go for a more reserved 2 goal margin at 12/5, However a three goal margin is at 18/5 and a four goal margin is at 9/4.

Prediction: Real Madrid win 4-1 available at 12/1 with Ladbrokes.


comment here