Soccer Picks: Real Madrid vs. Real Betis

Nila Amerova

Monday, April 15, 2013 7:41 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 15, 2013 7:41 PM GMT

Real Madrid hosts Real Betis at the Bernabéu on Saturday, April 20, where Los Merengues will look to extend their rich vein of La Liga form and, possibly even, keep whatever slim title-hope remains alive.


Join us as we breakdown this Spanish Primera Division matchup and deliver our free soccer picks for you to consider on your weekend betting ticket.

Real Madrid Hot Faves to win outright

That Real Madrid are hot faves, listed at 3/10 (or-333) at William Hill to win outright, is a market tilt surprising nobody given their form and the mid-table team they are coming up against at the weekend.  Los Merengues are riding a nine-game undefeated streak (8-1-0) in La Liga action, a run of form they extended with an emphatic 3-0 win over Athletic Club on Sunday. This latest win was rather important for Real Madrid not only to continue advancing their cause in domestic action but also to usher in a return to winning form after a 3-2 defeat to Galatasaray in Champions League action last week. Although the defeat wasn’t enough to send Real out of Europe’s premier competition, the fact remains that they had the Spanish side under the cosh for most of the match and had it not been for Cristiano Ronaldo’s singlehanded efforts to ensure his side’s progress, the result could have been different.

Overall, Real Madrid boast a 21-5-5 record (13-2-0 at home) on the season, which puts them second in the table but a massive 13-points adrift of Barcelona that sits lotus comfortably at the top of La Liga. This gulf between Real and Barcelona has led to an overarching opinion that the title is well and truly out of their reach. That notion however Jose Mourinho isn’t subscribing to whatsoever with seven games left on the season and a maximum of 21 points up for grabs.

Real won its last two domestic games, outscoring their opposition 8-1 (5-1 over Levante and 3-0 over Athletic). They have yet to lose a home game this season and their last domestic defeat came early in February; a surprise 1-0 defeat to Granada at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes on February 2 that any sentient soccer fan outside of Granada can only consider a fluke.

Can Europa League berth inspire no-hopers, Real Betis?

Real Betis is flush off a 3-3 draw against Seville, a remarkable result by all accounts as they were 3-0 down with 32 minutes left before they began to claw back to 3-3. In forcing a draw on Seville, Real Betis managed to keep their Europa League qualification hope alive and, of course, there was some euphoria to take away as well. The draw must have felt like a win to them. It’s worth mentioning here – not to be a party-pooper – but Seville has just one win in 16 road games (1-5-10) this season so a post mortem on that match might suggest it was par for the course? 

Reality for the Béticos is that the euphoria, whether it was justifiably earned or not, is destined to be short lived because they will be hard pressed to build on that result when a date with Real Madrid looms. Not impossible but certainly difficult and it would require something bigger than just the merest promise of Europa League action next season to inspire them to victory.

But what if Real Betis could pull off the unthinkable? Only a diehard Béticos fan would back them to victory. In fact, William Hill has them tipped as the quintessential long shot bets at soccer odds of 8/1 to win outright and, just for laughs, at a similarly long 9/2 to force the draw.

Real Betis did win the last meeting with Real Madrid but that was on their home turf in November and it was their first win over Real since a 2-1 victory (once again at home) in February 2008. Overall, Real Betis has a losing record against Real which consists of a 5-7-6 mark at home and a 2-5-10 mark at the Bernabéu.

[gameodds]17/225349/349-43-192/us[/gameodds]

Betting Verdict: Although Real Madrid is wholly behind in the title race (if you can still call it that), they are obdurate believers.  They are in it to win it and until that becomes a mathematical impossibility they’re not throwing the towel in just yet. The strength of their current form in domestic action augurs well towards that end, it must be said. They know they absolutely cannot afford to bleed any points in the final push and, as such, look for them to extract maximum points from the Béticos on Saturday.

Backing Real Madrid at 3/10 to win outright isn’t going to earn anybody a landslide but it’s an almost sure bet (as sure as any bet can be when comparing the Xs and Os) to pad your pocket. This means that the best value to be had in this game is to be found in the periphery markets such as betting on the first and second half separately, betting on the correct scores and so forth. 

Real Madrid to win 1-0 is a surprising 10/1 bet while a 2-0 score is tipped at 15/2. Since Real has averaged 3.33 goals at home this season, the better sports betting options are those that represent higher scorelines such as 3-0 at 8/1 or 3-1 at 9/1. 

Speaking of first and second half betting, Real Betis is a 6/1 bet to win the first half, a conceivable result when taking stock of Real Madrid’s scoring statistics, which show they are better at scoring in the second half than the first and shows their optimal scoring window is from the 60 to 75-minute mark.

Soccer Free Picks: Real Madrid to win at 3/10 and by a 3-1 score at 9/1 with William Hill
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